By Moira Macdonald
Seattle Times movie critic

On with the show ... or so they say.

The 75th annual Academy Awards ceremony, at press time, was good to go at 5:30 Sunday on ABC (with a pre-show at 5) — though world events may dictate last-minute changes. As planned, Steve Martin will host and a Hollywood A-list will present the awards (Cameron Diaz, Colin Farrell, Halle Berry, Julia Roberts and the like); though the traditional red-carpet arrivals will be curtailed and some last-minute shuffling (and off-the-cuff speechifying) may occur.

In other words, expect this year's ceremony to have a slightly on-the-fly quality — but that's nothing new to the Academy Awards, thanks to the whims of live television and 5,800 unpredictable Oscar voters. Though the ceremony is carefully scripted, sometimes the Oscars can feel like one big improvisation, played by a not-always-tuneful band. Remember last year, when Woody Allen showed up for his first Oscar appearance ever, presenting a touching tribute to New York on film? Or when Jim Broadbent, predicted to win by virtually nobody, took home the trophy for best supporting actor? Or when Gwyneth Paltrow wore That Outfit — oh, please don't make me describe it, but we were all expecting so much better.

So, while we anticipate a more subdued evening than usual, let's take a look at whose names might be announced after "And the Oscar goes to ... " There's no science to picking an Oscar winner; just a combination of factors and instinct, with a hearty sprinkling of guesswork, especially in the obscure categories ("Documentary Short," anyone?). With that said — and with a reminder that, as always, the Oscars have as much to do with popularity as merit — let the predictions begin ...

Best picture

This category, often the trickiest, is this year's easiest to call, and I'll eat my tap shoes if "Chicago" doesn't dance away with this year's top prize. Rob Marshall's dark musical about two murdering chorines in 1920s Chicago has been winning major awards left and right this winter, and it seems to be exactly what audiences — and Oscar voters — have been looking for: razzle-dazzle entertainment. (Is it the year's best film? Maybe not, but was "A Beautiful Mind" really last year's best?) "The Pianist," which might have been a contender, seems to have been left in the dust; "Gangs of New York," "The Hours" and "The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers" never had a chance.

Prediction: "Chicago."

My vote: "Chicago," though "The Hours" and "The Pianist" also made my heart sing.

Wish you were here: "Far from Heaven."

Best actor

Great performances, all. Momentum seems to belong to recent SAG winner Daniel Day-Lewis ("Gangs of New York") who's very respected by the academy (he won in 1990) and has been absent from the screen for several years. Jack Nicholson ("About Schmidt") was the early favorite, but might have to settle for his usual front-row seat. Michael Caine ("The Quiet American") is beloved by Hollywood, but his film received little attention; Nicolas Cage's terrific performance in "Adaptation" will likely fall victim to the academy's general prejudice against comedic performances; Adrien Brody, a revelation in "The Pianist," is young and will have other chances.

Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis.

My vote: Michael Caine.

Wish you were here: Javier Cámara, "Talk to Her."

Best actress

It's a two-woman race, and at press time way too close to call. Both Nicole Kidman and Renée Zellweger underwent impressive transformations this year: Kidman was nearly unrecognizable as writer Virginia Woolf in "The Hours"; Zellweger unleashed her inner song-and-dance-gal for "Chicago." Perhaps Zellweger has a slight edge after winning the SAG award, but this one's going down to the wire. Flip a coin. Of the remaining three, Julianne Moore ("Far from Heaven") is most deserving but may be going home empty-handed despite two nominations; Salma Hayek ("Frida") and Diane Lane ("Unfaithful") can happily drink champagne and show off their gowns, knowing it's not their year.

Prediction: Um, um, oh, I don't know ... OK, Nicole Kidman.

My vote: Renée Zellweger.

Wish you were here: Meryl Streep, "The Hours."

Best supporting actor

Another close one, with the favorites being two guys named Chris: Cooper, the toothless botanist in "Adaptation," and Walken, a loving if flaky dad in "Catch Me If You Can." But never rule out veteran Paul Newman, who's here for "Road to Perdition." Or the academy may consider four-time nominee Ed Harris ("The Hours"), who's never won despite years of fine work, or the year's most hardworking actor, John C. Reilly (nominated for "Chicago," though he was also in "The Hours" and "Gangs of New York.") I'm thinking Walken or Newman, as the academy likes veterans in this category; or Cooper if enough people watched his movie.

Prediction: Christopher Walken, by a hair.

My vote: Chris Cooper.

Wish you were here: Jude Law, "Road to Perdition."

Best supporting actress

"Chicago" songstress Catherine Zeta-Jones is the favorite here, but by no means a lock: Two-time nominee Julianne Moore may be recognized for "The Hours" or Meryl Streep ("Adaptation") could take the award as a consolation prize for being overlooked in the best actress category. Queen Latifah ("Chicago") might have had a better chance if Zeta-Jones had been in the other category; Kathy Bates was splendid in "About Schmidt," but her film hasn't gotten much support.

Prediction: Catherine Zeta-Jones.

My vote: Julianne Moore.

Wish you were here: Bebe Neuwirth, "Tadpole," or Samantha Morton, "Minority Report."

Best director

Until a mere two weeks ago, this looked to be one of those years with a best picture/best director split — newcomer Rob Marshall did a swell job with "Chicago," but it's unusual for a first-timer to win. Martin Scorsese, though, has long deserved an Oscar (though maybe not for "Gangs of New York"). But when Marshall won the Directors Guild award — a very reliable Oscar harbinger — Oscar-watchers scrambled to rethink this category. I'm still going with Scorsese, but Marshall's a close second. Roman Polanski's legal troubles seem to have made him too controversial a candidate (though "The Pianist" is a triumph); Stephen Daldry ("The Hours") and Pedro Almodóvar ("Talk to Her") are talented also-rans.

Prediction: Martin Scorsese.

My vote: Scorsese for a brilliant career; Marshall for the year's brightest debut.

Wish you were here: Philip Noyce, "The Quiet American" and "Rabbit-Proof Fence."

Best adapted screenplay

Ooh, was this ever a great year for adaptations, and all five of the entries in this category are sterling. Look for Bill Condon to join a "Chicago" sweep; or playwright David Hare, who just won the Writers' Guild Award, to be recognized for "The Hours." Or will the academy be unable to resist rewarding a fictitious person; namely, Donald Kaufman (and real-life brother Charlie) for "Adaptation"? Also nominated: Peter Hedges, Chris Weitz and Paul Weitz for "About a Boy," and Ronald Harwood for "The Pianist."

Prediction: Bill Condon, "Chicago."

My vote: David Hare, "The Hours."

Wish you were here: Robert Schenkkan and Christopher Hampton, "The Quiet American."

Best original screenplay

This category could give recognition to Todd Haynes' underappreciated "Far from Heaven," or Pedro Almodóvar's wise and wonderful "Talk to Her." Or will the academy choose to honor the year's biggest little movie, Nia Vardalos' "My Big Fat Greek Wedding"? (Not if they've seen the TV show.) Also nominated: Jay Cocks, Steven Zaillian and Kenneth Lonergan for "Gangs of New York"; Carlos Cuarón and Alfonso Cuarón for "Y Tu Mamá También."

Prediction: Nia Vardalos, "My Big Fat Greek Wedding."

My vote: Todd Haynes, "Far from Heaven."

Wish you were here: Nicole Holofcener, "Lovely & Amazing."

Other categories

Elsewhere, expect "Chicago" to hold its lead in the design categories, despite comely competition from "Frida." Master cinematographer Conrad L. Hall, who died earlier this year, should receive one of the academy's rare posthumous awards for his work in "Road to Perdition." And will Paul Simon, Eminem, U2 or "Chicago" duo Kander & Ebb emerge triumphant from the competition for best original song, since the year's most hummable tune, "All That Jazz," isn't eligible? Tune in tonight, and be sure to sing along.

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