Getting a fare deal on winter flights

With summer ending, it's time to think of winter holiday airfare deals — which are now becoming more widespread and plentiful.

Post-Labor day sales are popping up among many major carriers, and at least one fare watcher thinks early might be the best time to buy. Before the fall, procrastination seemed to pay off: People were buying tickets later, and airlines were offering some last-minute deals. But as the economy improves and airlines can better predict passenger numbers, cheap near-term fares are going to be harder to come by, Travelzoo Senior Editor Gabe Saglie said.

What the airlines won't tell you

The fall is typically the weakest season of the year for air travel, and airlines are worried.

"I think that definitely we saw this year an earlier than usual push for fall and winter travel," Saglie said. "Before we were even talking about winter, airlines were talking about late December travel deals."

Even in the winter season, when folks start traveling for Thanksgiving and Christmas, airlines are still betting that many people will opt to stay home. And they're working hard to persuade you to fly.

Fares across the country are still lower than they have been in years, despite some scattered hikes. Overall, they're down by about 20 percent over last year. Some prices on more popular routes were raised slightly in late summer only to be cut again.

Some airlines are getting more aggressive with fare sales by posting them on social networking sites such as Twitter. JetBlue, Southwest and Virgin America have all given Web-savvy customers a leg up on sales.

Playing chicken with airlines

People are waiting longer to book trips these days, as they worry about affording a trip down the road. And the airlines have adjusted, slashing fares for closer departure dates. "Waiting until the last minute (to buy a ticket) in the recent past has allowed for greater availability," Saglie said. "The holidays are when things will start to turn around."

Low fares are prevalent now for travel through early winter, and Saglie said that waiting for them to get even better might not be the best move. Because the airlines expect more people to travel around the holidays, they likely won't be as willing to dish out as many last-minute deals.

The key to grabbing a cheap fare is all in the research. If you know you want to fly around Thanksgiving, for example, check travel Web sites like Orbitz, Travelocity and Expedia periodically to review how the fares for your chosen dates are fluctuating. Also, it's helpful to set up alerts from travel deal newsletter services like Travelzoo and checking fare history charts on sites like Kayak.com. And check out Farecast at bingtravel.com and farecompare.com for airfare forecasts/comparison-shopping.

A plan of action

A wave of fall and winter fare sales was launched late Monday, so it's a good time to start shopping for those early deals. This will give you a good ballpark idea of what prices are now, even if you don't choose to book right away. An even cheaper flight might be around the corner, as airlines begin to survey passenger demand in the fall season, but it isn't likely that Thanksgiving or Christmas fares have that much farther to fall, Saglie said.

But this is where your research will come in handy.

"The bottom line is it is very volatile in the airline marketplace — prices are fluctuating by hundreds of dollars in some cases," said Rick Seaney, CEO of FareCompare.com. "Know what a good price is."

And when you see it, buy it.