Holiday travelers to see fewer, fuller, more costly flights

If you're among the 24 million people expected to be flying on U.S. airlines over the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday, here's the good, the bad and the ugly of what to expect:

• Fewer, fuller flights but not necessarily more flight delays, crowded airports or long waits in security lines.

The reason: About 10 percent fewer people will be flying this year between Friday, Nov. 21 and Dec. 2, the Air Transport Association reports. It will be the first decline in holiday travel in seven years, but airlines have cut the numbers of available seats 10-20 percent compared with last year. This means more crowded planes — 90 to 100 percent full — but not necessarily more congested airports.

• Higher airfares for peak flying days on or near the Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year's holidays, but some bargains for travel in early December and mid-to-late January and after.

• New fees for checking bags and extra charges for taking pets or extra-heavy suitcases.

• Less space in overhead bins as more passengers try to avoid the fees by bringing more or bigger carry-ons.

• More last-minute schedule changes and "bumping" as airlines oversell flights to make sure planes take off with every seat filled.

"Almost every airline is cutting back on their flight schedules, which means more people on fewer flights, and more crowded flights," said Dwayne Baird, the Transportation Security Administration's spokesman in Seattle. "That's going to create more anxiety for passengers."

One bright spot: shorter waits at airport security checkpoints and fewer flight delays.

"Our wait times everywhere are now averaging well below 20 minutes," Baird said, mainly because of new screening technology and a new "self-select" system of funneling passengers into three different types of lanes, depending on how familiar they are with the TSA drill of taking off shoes, removing laptops from bags, putting liquids in plastic bags, etc.

Another upside: Flights are more likely to arrive and depart on time. The nation's major airlines boosted on-time arrivals to 85 percent of all domestic flights in September, the best rate in five years.

"With fewer flights operating, that should provide some relief to the air traffic management system," said James May, CEO of the Air Transport Association (ATA), a trade association that represents U.S. airlines.

The ATA is hoping the government will again open up military airspace as it did last year to help ease congestion, May said.

The busiest travel days are expected to be Nov. 30; Dec. 1; and Nov. 26, respectively, when planes could average close to 90 percent full.

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport expects passenger traffic will be about even with last year, with about 90,000 passing through Sea-Tac on the busiest days, slightly fewer than in the peak days of summer.

As always, it pays to know the rules and fly defensively. Here are some tips:

New baggage rules, fees

New rules and fees for checking bags will affect many passengers. Most airlines now charge passengers $15 each way for checking one bag and $25 for a second on domestic flights, although there are some exceptions.

Alaska Airlines doesn't charge for the first checked bag, and Southwest has no baggage fees. None of the airlines charge fees to first or business class passengers or those who have elite status in their frequent-flier programs.

See www.smartertravel.com for a list of what the various airlines charge. Call your airline or check its Web site for updates. Airlines have been tweaking their policies and could make more changes. Delta recently lowered its second checked bag fee from $50 to $25, and United backed off a $50 charge for a second bag. Other tips:

• Don't overpack. Fees are hefty ($50 to $125 depending on the airline) for overweight (51 to 70 pounds) and oversized bags ($50 to $150). Are your skis more than 115 inches long? Do your golf clubs weigh more than 50 pounds? If so, you'll pay extra.

• Consider shipping holiday gifts instead of packing them in checked bags.

• Stick to the rules allowing one carry-on bag (40 pounds, about 22 inches by 14 inches by 9 inches) and one purse or laptop.

• Don't pack valuables — cameras, iPods, jewelry, cellphones, etc. — in checked luggage. Airlines won't take responsibility should they be lost, damaged or stolen. Put these items in your carry-on.

• Remember to pack carry-on liquids in a quart-sized, resealable plastic bag. One bag is allowed per passenger with liquids of no more than three ounces. See www.tsa.govfor a list of what's allowed in carry-ons. TSA plans to have plastic bags available for those who forget to bring their own.

If you do check luggage, chances are less likely than in years past that your bags will be lost or damaged. The airlines reported complaints of mishandled bags dropped from 5.36 per 1,000 passengers last year to 3.86 in September.

Airfare

Prices during the peak holiday travel days remain high, but the good news is that, as fuel prices have dropped and demand has slowed, airlines have started slashing fares to fill seats during slack times.

To take advantage of the best fares, consider timing family visits or a vacation before Dec. 18 or after Jan. 5.

The lowest round-trip fare between Seattle and Columbus, Ohio, for instance, is $191 if you leave on Dec. 3 and return on Dec. 10. It jumps to nearly $700 if you leave on Dec. 21 and return Dec. 28. Fly to Honolulu in mid-January instead of Christmas week and the lowest round-trip fare plunges from around $750 to $365.

Schedule changes

If you booked your holiday travel in August or September, chances are you've already received an e-mail notifying you of a schedule change.

Airlines have dropped flights and are using smaller planes to adjust for falling demand and higher fuel costs. Call the airline or check your e-mail for notices of last-minute changes.

Airlines frequently oversell flights and bump passengers, and there will be more of that going on this year.

To avoid being bumped, check in as early as possible. Alaska/Horizon's policy on involuntary bumping calls for denying boarding to the last person who checks in on time.

Airlines first ask for volunteers to give up their seats and take another flight, usually in exchange for a first-class seat on another flight, plus money or a voucher for future travel.

If that doesn't work, some people might be bumped involuntarily.

Federal law requires no compensation if this happens, and the airline arranges a substitute flight scheduled to get you to your destination within one hour of your original arrival time.

If the delay is between one and two hours (between one and four hours on international flights), airlines must pay you an amount equal to your one-way fare, or a maximum of $400, up from $200 last year.

If the delay is more than two hours (more than four internationally), the compensation doubles to 200 percent of your fare, or a maximum $800, up from $400 last year.

More details at airconsumer.ost.dot.gov.

Get a head start

• Get to the airport two hours before your flight (three hours if traveling internationally). Allow for traffic delays and finding parking. If parking off the airport, make a reservation and pick a lot with round-the-clock security.

• Pack snacks or a lunch because most airlines no longer serve meals. A few, including Alaska and JetBlue, accept only credit cards for food and drinks sold on board.

• Use self-service kiosks at the airport to print out boarding passes if you haven't already done that from home.

• Don't forget to bring a driver's license or other government-issued photo ID. Bring a passport if you are traveling out of the country, including to Canada and Mexico.

• Sea-Tac will open all three of its security checkpoints and may open a fourth, depending on how busy things get. Passengers can use whatever checkpoint seems the least crowded, then walk to any gate once inside security.

TSA has a special three-lane system in place at 50 U.S. airports including Sea-Tac's Central checkpoint. There's a "black diamond" lane for frequent travelers with minimal carry-on luggage; a blue lane for others who may not be familiar with all the rules; and a green lane for families and those needing special help.

If you're flying after November 20th and carrying medically necessary liquids in containers larger than 3 ounces, you'll be asked to use the family lane. These include baby formula, breast milk, insulin, cough syrup, contact lens solution, and prescription medications which TSA asks passengers show to inspectors for extra screening.

Carol Pucci: 206-464-3701 or cpucci@seattletimes.com