Originally published August 12, 2008 at 12:00 AM | Page modified August 12, 2008 at 4:44 AM

Holiday travel may be a first-class headache

Flying over the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays will be more expensive and seats harder to come by as airlines start dropping unprofitable routes and cutting flights to combat high fuel costs.

By Carol Pucci

Seattle Times travel writer

Gotta fly? Read these tips first

Booking flights

If you're booking far ahead — more than three months out — be aware that your airline could decide to drop your route or cut its flight schedule between the time you book and the time you fly.

What to do:

• Know your options if your airline drops your flight. Carriers have various policies on what they will do, including booking you on another airline that flies the same route. You can find a list of airline policies at www.airfarewatchdog.com.

• Booking directly through your airline offers the best protection in case of changes or cancellations.

• Avoid using commercial Web sites that pull together itineraries using multiple carriers that aren't partners, and leave no "lead" airline responsible for revising your itinerary should one of the flights be changed or dropped.

Fares

It was sticker shock for anyone who considered flying this summer, and fares to Europe this fall are 50 to 60 percent higher than a year ago. Expect prices to rise to destinations where airlines are cutting service. But outside the peak holiday periods, there could be some nice surprises for fall or winter travel.

At $1,000, a round-trip ticket between Seattle and Amsterdam in October is no bargain, but if your destination is Miami, Delta drops its fare from $516 this month to $280 in September. If you try to book that fare now for the Thanksgiving holiday week, it jumps to $590.

What to do:

• Buy now or wait? It's always a gamble. Most advise booking early for holiday travel, especially to areas where airlines have cut back on flights because of falling demand by vacation travelers (Orlando, Las Vegas, Hawaii, etc.).

• If you're planning a vacation for another time of the year, it might make more sense to wait closer to the time you plan to travel to see the effect that falling demand and competition have on pushing prices lower.

• To save money, consider a flight with a connection vs. a nonstop. Northwest's round-trip, midweek fare from Seattle to Chicago in mid-September is $266 with a stop in Minneapolis, compared to $332 for Alaska's nonstop.

• "Travelers who were planning a trip to Europe may want to rethink their options," Tom Parsons of Bestfares.com advised in his latest newsletter. Some flights to the Caribbean and Mexico for later this year may cost 80 percent less than those to Europe, he said.

New fees

Fly round-trip on Delta Air Lines between Seattle and Atlanta this Thanksgiving with a second bag that weighs 55 pounds, and you'll pay an extra $280 — $100 for the bag and an additional $180 because it's overweight.

Fearful that even higher fares will cut too deeply into demand, airlines are turning to fees for checking bags and ticket changes.

What to do:

• Pack light, with either just a carry-on or a maximum of one checked bag weighing no more than 50 pounds. Send the holiday gifts ahead, and whatever the case, don't be caught by surprise. Fees are moving targets. Call your airline or check its Web site before making reservations.

• Keep in mind the baggage fees apply mainly to domestic coach travel, including Canada and sometimes Mexico and the Caribbean. Exempted are first class, business, members of the airlines' elite frequent-flier programs and international travelers.

• Smarter Travel and Airfarewatchdog.com have published an updated guide listing fees for 12 airlines. See the Ultimate Guide to Airline Fees at www.smartertravel.com.

Frequent-flier programs

Airlines are raising the minimum number of miles they require for award travel, charging to book with partner airlines, and adding fees for changes or cancellations.

US Airways announced it will stop awarding bonus miles to elite members of its frequent-flier program. Starting next month, Northwest Airlines will levy a $25 to $100 "fuel surcharge" for booking award travel.

As of Nov. 1, Alaska/Horizon will raise the number of miles needed to redeem a "Coach Saver" award ticket from 20,000 to 25,000 and charge a $25 fee to redeem miles on partner airlines.

What to do: With fewer seats available and all the new fees, frequent-flier programs have lost much of their value. It's time to re-evaluate whether the cost of "affinity" credit cards tied to accumulating airline miles is worth the high annual fees and interest-rate charges. Don't buy something just to get miles. The Ultimate Guide to Frequent Flier fees at www.smartertravel.com has a breakdown of frequent-flier fees.

Cashless cabins

Alaska, JetBlue, Frontier and Virgin America no longer accept cash for onboard purchases such as meals and drinks, a move that is likely to boost sales and make it easier for airlines to sell new items and services.

What to do: If you don't want to use a credit card or don't have one, bring what you need or buy what you want with cash after you pass through airport security. Liquids of more than 3 ounces aren't allowed through the security checkpoints, but it's OK to bring an empty water bottle and fill it once inside.

Carol Pucci, Seattle Times travel reporter

Thinking about flying somewhere this fall or making plans to travel over the Thanksgiving or Christmas holidays?

Flights are about to be fewer and fuller after Labor Day as airlines start dropping routes and cutting flights to combat high fuel costs.

Will holding down the number of available seats cause prices to rise even higher? It's all a case of supply and demand, making the decision on when to buy a ticket more of a gamble than ever.

"Unless you think that fuel costs are going back to 2005 levels, the airlines are really having to adjust to an expectation that costs will stay up in the general neighborhood of where they are," said Mark Reis, managing director at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport.

"Given that, they know they have to make significant changes in the way they do business. That includes air fares, routes, the type of aircraft they fly, to say nothing of staffing."

Reis, scheduled to deliver a report to Seattle Port commissioners today, said in an interview that he is preparing for a year "that will be the most difficult we've had since 9/11, when terrorist attacks sent the airline industry into a tailspin."

"Starting in the fourth quarter and in some instances, right after Labor Day, you'll see cutbacks come into play that will drive fares up, and the carriers will be assessing what the impact of that is," Reis said.

Costly changes

If it's been a while since you've flown, you'll notice other changes:

• Except for Southwest Airlines, nearly all carriers now charge coach passengers $25 each way to check a second bag on domestic flights. Delta recently raised its second-bag fee to $50. United, American, Northwest, US Airways and Hawaiian charge $15 to check the first bag.

• Frequent-flier programs are changing as airlines have started charging fees to book and change award travel, raising the number of miles required to get a free ticket, cutting out bonus miles, and charging for reserving seats on partner airlines.

• More things that were once free are now for sale. JetBlue sells pillows and blankets for $7, and US Airways charges $2 for coffee, water and sodas on domestic flights. Some airlines, including Seattle-based Alaska, no longer take cash, only credit cards for onboard purchases.

Suspended routes

One of the biggest impacts on consumers will be fewer flights and higher fares to many destinations this fall and winter as airlines park fuel-guzzling planes and shift others to more profitable routes.

Bigger cities, such as Seattle and Portland, where several airlines fly the same route, will be affected less than smaller towns such as Yakima, where Delta is suspending service to Salt Lake City.

Resort destinations such as Hawaii, Florida and Las Vegas are facing double-digit cutbacks in the number of seats available — either because flights are being cut or airlines are putting smaller planes on those routes.

Only China Air has pulled out of the Seattle market. It will drop its nonstop between Seattle and Taipei next month.

Other airlines have canceled nonstop service from Seattle to Butte, Mont.; Austin, Texas; and Milwaukee, and cut back service to a number of cities including Las Vegas; Palm Springs, Calif.; Reno, Nev.; and several Mexican destinations.

Horizon Air stops its service to Butte on Aug. 25 and pulls out of North Bend and Klamath Falls, Ore., on Oct. 11. It will no longer fly this winter from Seattle to Kamloops, B.C., a popular ski area.

Still Sea-Tac is surviving fairly well with just a 0.6 percent cut in the overall number of seats available compared to an 8 percent average drop for airports nationwide. Sea-Tac's numbers reflect added service to Los Angeles, San Francisco, Beijing, Frankfurt and Kona, Hawaii, but what will happen next year is uncertain.

Alaska Airlines, which flies about 35 percent of the passengers traveling in and out of Sea-Tac, plans to reduce its systemwide capacity by 5 to 10 percent in 2009, and Horizon plans more cuts.

Announcements are expected next month on which cities might be affected.

"It's very dynamic," said Horizon spokeswoman Jen Boyer. "As the economy changes, people are changing their flying habits," deciding to drive rather than fly or to skip popular vacation destinations.

Carol Pucci: 206-464-3701 or cpucci@seattletimes.com

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