What airline mergers mean for Northwest travelers

A merger between Delta Air Lines and Northwest or United and Continental eventually would affect everything from frequent-flier programs to routes and ticket prices.

As talks between Delta and Northwest continue, United Airlines is pondering its strategic options, including a potential merger between the Chicago-based carrier and Continental.

Here's what consolidation among the nation's biggest airlines might mean for Northwest travelers:

Frequent-flier programs: No one's going to lose his/her accrued miles in the event of a voluntary merger, but there are a few things to keep in mind.

A merger between Atlanta-based Delta and Minneapolis-based Northwest would create the world's biggest air carrier. The two airlines already are mileage partners with Seattle-based Alaska Airlines, as well as with members of the SkyTeam Alliance, which includes Continental, KLM Royal Dutch Airlines and Air France.

"There's really not any difference between the two in the ability to redeem miles," said Jerry Chandler, travel news blogger for Cheapflights.com, a Web site that searches out discount air fares.

If Delta and Northwest merge, the combined airline would operate under the Delta name and have its headquarters in Atlanta. The rules for qualifying for free upgrades or the number of miles needed to fly to certain destinations could change, depending on what type of plan the merged airline adopts.

In the event of a United/Continental merger, most assume United would be the surviving partner. That would likely mean that members of Continental's OnePass frequent-flier program would no longer be able to redeem miles or receive credit with SkyTeam airlines.

United, which operates a daily nonstop between Seattle and Tokyo, is a member of the Star Alliance system. That includes Lufthansa, which starts nonstop service to Frankfurt soon; Scandinavian Airlines, with a daily nonstop to Copenhagen; and Air Canada, which connects to many European destinations through Vancouver.

Fares: Everyone assumes fares will rise with fewer big carriers. In smaller towns and certain hub cities that could be left with one airline instead of two, this could happen. But even in some of these areas, discount airlines could force the big carriers to lower prices.

"It will be airlines like JetBlue, AirTran and Virgin America that will be the traffic cops, to the extent they can exert pressure in certain markets," Chandler said.

Virgin and JetBlue, both of which are starting new service from Seattle to California, have been doing just that in the Northwest. Alaska/Horizon, which accounts for nearly half of all Seattle-Tacoma International Airport's passenger traffic, has been matching the lower fares.

Routes: Delta and Northwest combined fly about 12 percent of Sea-Tac's passengers. United and Continental together fly about 14 percent.

Sea-Tac is the nation's 17th busiest airport, handling about 30 million passengers per year, but it's not a hub for any of the airlines in merger talks. Most flights from here go into cities such as Newark, Salt Lake City, Minneapolis and Cincinnati, where passengers make connections.

The biggest impact could be on future international routes, said Sea-Tac managing director Mark Reis.

Airport officials have been talking with Northwest about adding new Asia destinations once it begins taking delivery of a fleet of new Boeing 787 Dreamliners next year.

Reis said that while Northwest tends to focus on Pacific-oriented international routes, Delta concentrates on Atlantic routes served from its Atlanta hub.

"For us, the big strategic question would be in a merged company, would they deploy those 787s the way they would have before or in some different way."

United and Northwest fly daily nonstops between Tokyo and Seattle, and China's Hainan Airlines recently announced it will begin service to and from Beijing in June. But Reis says the Asian market is still underserved in Seattle.

"If I could identify the city in Asia that is most likely to sustain new service, it would be Hong Kong."

With traffic between Seattle and China growing 12 percent annually, "more service to Beijing is going to make sense at some point," he said. Also Shanghai, and eventually Australia, Singapore and India, are all destinations suited for the long-range 787.

Carol Pucci: 206-464-3701 or cpucci@seattletimes.com