Mariners could be good if things fall in place

What if?

I mean if you can't think positively on the eve of the season's opener, when can you?

Today's the day the Pittsburgh Pirates are still in the race. The Kansas City Royals are ready to break out of a 25-year funk. Today, every team, even if it's just for a few minutes, thinks it can be this season's Tampa Bay Rays.

So what if? What if everything breaks right for the Mariners?

Let's say Felix Hernandez, who turns 23 this week, grows into the role of ace. And hard-nosed Ryan Rowland-Smith toughs his way into becoming a dependable starter.

What if either a slimmed-down Carlos Silva, or a better-focused Jarrod Washburn pitches with the consistency they once showed before they came to Seattle?

Silva's 2008 season was an enormous disappointment. His combination of weight gain and swollen earned-run average was one of the greatest disappointments in a season bloated with bad. What if he has regained his edge?

And, what if Erik Bedard gets and stays healthy? Or Chris Jakubauskas emerges? This is a season of long shots, and Jakubauskas is the longest of shots.

What if the Mariners stop kicking the ball around the field the way they did last season? How many games did their sloppy defense cost them — 10? 15?

Once Ichiro returns, and on the days Endy Chavez plays left field, the Mariners should be one of the best defenses in the American League. Chavez, Ichiro and center fielder Franklin Gutierrez will shrink Safeco Field's yawning outfield gaps.

And what if shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt matures and stops making the easy plays look so hard? With Adrian Beltre, the best third baseman in baseball and sure-handed second baseman Jose Lopez, what if first base was the only true defensive weakness?

How much better will that make the starting pitching? How many more wins could that add?

What if Ken Griffey Jr. stays healthy and that sweetest of swings can produce 30 home runs and 80 RBI? And he becomes the clubhouse leader who won't put up with the finger-pointing and petty jealousies of last season?

He could take the heat off Ichiro, and who knows what kind of season could be lurking inside the Mariners' hit machine.

What if first baseman Russell Branyan has the breakout season he believes he's capable of having?

What if Lopez hits 20 to 25 home runs? What if catcher Kenji Johjima, confident after his performance at the World Baseball Classic, can have another season like 2006, when he hit .291 and drove in 76 runs?And what if Betancourt becomes more, um, selective at the plate?

What if Mike Sweeney or Wladimir Balentien continues to hit in May and June the way they hit in March? Remember last season's depth? — Miguel Cairo, Willie Bloomquist, Jose Vidro, Bryan LaHair? This could be much better.

If all this happens, the Mariners could win 85 games. This team could pave the way for a future that includes pitchers Phillippe Aumont and Maikel Cleto in the rotation.

Are all these what ifs too much to ask? Absolutely.

More likely, the M's will be out of the race by the end of July and the pressure will be on new general manager Jack Zduriencik to make the right trades for Bedard and Beltre.

More likely the Mariners are two full seasons away from being contenders.

The rotation certainly doesn't inspire confidence, and the bullpen is frightening. The season is about to begin and questions hover like vultures.

Brandon Morrow will be the closer, which is good news/bad news.

Bad news: It means the Mariners used the fifth pick in the 2006 draft to find a closer, when they could have drafted their ace-for-a-decade in Tim Lincecum.

And it means they used their first pick in last June's draft for another closer, Josh Fields, which seems more than a little bit redundant.

These are the kind of mistakes from the Bill Bavasi administration that we don't expect to be repeated under Zduriencik.

Good news: The Mariners have found a closer as Morrow has the high-90s stuff to fit that role. The question now is how do the Mariners get to Morrow without blowing leads in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings?

The Mariners are going to have trouble scoring runs. They are going to have to depend on at least a half-dozen players having career years. Eighty-five wins seems a little too much to ask in the first year of the reclamation project.

But what if? On the eve of the opener, the question is worth considering.

Steve Kelley: 206-464-2176 or skelley@seattletimes.com