Mariners look like playoff team

Why not?

Why can't the Mariners win the AL West? Why can't they make a run into deep October?

After all, isn't that why they traded for Erik Bedard? With Bedard and Felix Hernandez at the top of the rotation, doesn't that make them as dangerous as any playoff team in the American League?

Go ahead and dream. That's what March is for isn't it?

This is the month we can believe even Richie Sexson is going to break free from his slump, go for 40 homers and 120 runs batted in, and return the punch to the middle of the Mariners' batting order.

But, as we all know, there are questions on this team, questions that can't be answered in a couple of dozen Cactus League games.

How well will Brad Wilkerson do in right field?

Is the real Jose Lopez the All-Star of a couple of seasons ago, or the train wreck of last season?

And with no speed in either left field or right, will Ichiro's legs hold up as he runs from foul line to foul line, from April to October?

In the winter, it seemed, the West already had been conceded to the Los Angeles Angels. They had the deepest rotation. They signed center fielder Torii Hunter. They were the incumbents.

But the first pitch hasn't been thrown and already the Angels' staff is in trouble. John Lackey is hurting. Kelvim Escobar has missed the entire spring and isn't close to returning. And, let's face it, Jered Weaver is still a Weaver.

This season Oakland has decided to play No-Moneyball. And the Texas Rangers? You know the drill. They hang around the race until the first day the humidity hits 98 percent.

So why not the Mariners?

Sure you should be concerned that Bedard has looked more like Sandy Duncan than Sandy Koufax this spring. But he's a breaking-ball pitcher throwing in the Cactus League. Unless he is hiding some arm problem there is no cause for concern.

Hernandez really is a co-No. 1. At 21, he appears to have grown up. He understands the responsibility he has to this team. He came into camp in shape. He's working harder than ever.

March hasn't felt this hopeful since 2002.

Bedard, Hernandez, Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista. It may not be the 1971 Baltimore Orioles, but it's a serious rotation. If Batista's back stiffens, Ryan Rowland-Smith has that kind of edgy talent that would fill in quite nicely. And R.A. Dickey's knuckler is dancing like Gene Kelly.

Besides, the starters only have to go six to seven innings. The bullpen will miss George Sherrill, who went to Baltimore in the Bedard deal. But Eric O'Flaherty is ready to replace him as the left-handed setup man.

Brandon Morrow is a year older, a year more under control and still throwing in the high 90s. And, quite simply, J.J. Putz is the best closer in the game.

The first half of last season, Mike Hargrove was managing to save his job. The second half of the season, his replacement, John McLaren, was managing to keep the M's in the playoff race. Both of them abused the bullpen and by September the arms were dead.

A year more experienced and surrounded by one of the best coaching staffs in the game, McLaren won't make the same mistakes this year. This staff, from the starters to the 'pen, seems tailored for the stretch drive.

After all these years of worrying about the arms, it's the bats that are this season's concern. It's a season full of ifs.

The givens: Ichiro will slam-slice-chip-and-pound a guaranteed 200-plus hits. Adrian Beltre will play the best third base in baseball and be a productive hitter in the middle of the lineup. Yuniesky Betancourt will dazzle us at short and hit a respectable .275. Kenji Johjima will be a dependable workhorse at bat and behind the plate.

If Sexson can relax and deliver in the clutch; if Lopez can relight the fire that seemed to flicker after he signed a contract extension; if Raul Ibanez can stay healthy and swing the way he did in August and September; if Wilkerson can produce in right; and if designated hitter Jose Vidro can stay healthy and hit as well this season as he did last, the Mariners will run away with the West.

As it is, they will miss Adam Jones, who left for Baltimore. They will miss right fielder Jose Guillen, who signed with Kansas City. And, I believe, eventually this season, they will need Jeff Clement, their designated hitter/catcher-in-waiting.

The Mariners aren't better than Detroit or Cleveland. Unless calamity strikes in Boston and New York, they aren't better than the Red Sox and Yankees. But they are good enough to win the West.

And come October, with Bedard and Hernandez, just imagine the possibilities.

So again I ask, "Why not?"

Steve Kelley: 206-464-2176 or skelley@seattletimes.com