M's face excruciating decision over Ichiro

SAN DIEGO — The Mariners must navigate some very treacherous waters in the coming months.

Presuming they are engaged in behind-the-scenes negotiations on a contract extension for Ichiro — and it's hard to imagine they're not, considering the importance of Ichiro's future to the organization, both on and off the field — they will soon face some excruciating decisions.

The way I see it, they have five scenarios to mull over in the next seven weeks, prior to the July 31 trade deadline. Here's what could happen:

1. Mariners sign Ichiro to a contract extension before July 31.

This would render all the other questions moot, but I think it's an extreme longshot. Remember what Ichiro said when he reported to spring training:

"I've played 15 years of professional baseball, including Japan and America, and I have never filed for free agency. So, I've never had the choice to choose for myself which road I want to take. I've never had to do that in the past. So, if you ask me, 'Is it possible I might go to free agency?' I would say, 'Yes, it is a possibility.' "

Sounds to me like someone who is intrigued by, if not relishing, the opportunity to play the field in the winter. His strong performance this season isn't likely to make the Ichiro camp any less bold in its contract requests.

So, excruciating decision No. 1: The Mariners must decide whether it's worth it to them to pay the huge money it will no doubt take to retain Ichiro.

For comparables likely to come up in negotiations, think Vernon Wells (signed seven-year, $126 million extension last winter, a year ahead of his free agency), Derrek Lee (signed five-year, $65 million extension in April 2006, early in his final season before free agency), or even Alfonso Soriano (signed eight-year, $136 million free-agent contract).

2. Mariners remain in contention and keep Ichiro for the rest of the season without a new contract.

Based on the Mariners' current spot in the standings — within two games of a wild-card berth, and still in sight of the Angels — this is a very plausible outcome. This is what the Athletics have done so often, with the likes of Miguel Tejada, Jason Giambi and Barry Zito.

The Mariners would then have an exclusive two-week negotiating window with Ichiro after the World Series and before his free agency takes effect.

Even if he were then to sign elsewhere, the Mariners would not be uncompensated. Assuming Ichiro is classified as a Type A free agent in the rankings by the Elias Sports Bureau (in the top 30th percentile at his position), and provided the Mariners offer Ichiro salary arbitration, they would be compensated in one of two ways:

• If the team signing Ichiro drafts in the second half of the first round, the Mariners would get that team's first-round pick, plus a supplemental first-round pick (a special round between the first and second rounds).

• If the team signing Ichiro drafts in the first half of the first round, the Mariners would get that team's second-round pick, plus a supplemental first-round pick.

In other words, they could get one or two high-impact players — but no guarantees, and probably not for the immediate future.

3. Mariners remain in contention, but trade Ichiro because they're convinced they can't re-sign him and want to get a return beyond the compensatory draft picks.

I just don't see this happening. The Seattle fans might stage an uprising if the Mariners traded Ichiro in the midst of a pennant race.

True, they have Adam Jones on the verge of major-league readiness, if not stardom, but it would represent a huge gamble to replace a proven superstar with a rookie — even one as talented as Jones — under such circumstances.

4. Mariners fall out of contention, trade Ichiro because they're convinced they can't re-sign him and want to get a return beyond draft picks.

Sure, things look promising for the Mariners now, but this scenario is certainly not out of the realm of possibility — not with a starting rotation that brought a 5.61 earned-run average into Jeff Weaver's Saturday start in San Diego.

Here's where excruciating decision No. 2 would come into play: The club would have to look deep into its heart of hearts (and make its best assessment of Ichiro's state of mind) and decide whether it has a viable chance of signing Ichiro in the winter.

If the answer is no, and they're hopelessly out of contention, exploring an Ichiro trade would make sense, particularly if they could stir up a bidding war from teams needing a jolt in their races.

Keep in mind, however, that these kinds of pre-free-agency deals don't always yield the mega-talent return fans might expect. In particular, teams are increasingly reluctant to part with top pitching prospects based on the ever-escalating cost of free-agent pitchers.

It's also possible to envision a scenario by which the team looking to acquire Ichiro requests a 72-hour negotiating window from the commissioner to work on a contract extension. The package Seattle receives would then be adjusted commensurate to whether or not Ichiro is a rent-a-player.

5. Mariners fall out of contention, keep Ichiro without a new contract.

The Nationals did this last year with Soriano and were unable to sign him in the winter.

This past week, they got their return. With the picks they received in compensation for losing Soriano to the Cubs (who drafted in the first half of the draft, based on last year's 96-loss season), the Nationals got left-handed pitcher Josh Smoker, a high-schooler from Georgia, with the 31st overall pick (the first pick of the supplemental round). Then they took right-handed pitcher Jordan Zimmerman, from Wisconsin-Stevens Point, with the 67th overall pick (the Cubs' second-round pick).

Was it worth it for Soriano? That will take awhile to sort out. Would they have gotten more by trading Soriano last July? Nats general manager Jim Bowden didn't think so, and if the Mariners hit the skids, their GM, Bill Bavasi, will have to make the same assessment.

Of course, there are nuances and special circumstances attached to all these scenarios.

For instance: What constitutes "in contention?" That can be a tough call for a team sitting in the murky area of six to eight games out of a playoff berth in late July, and balancing realistic assessment of its ability to mount a charge against fans' perception the team is running up the white flag by trading a top player.

Another imponderable in the Mariners' situation is the input of Nintendo chairman Hiroshi Yamauchi, who remains intimately involved with their financial decisions — particularly those involving Japanese players — despite no longer being the titular head of the organization.

It will be fascinating to see how it all unfolds. All that's at stake is the future of the organization's most visible asset.

Larry Stone: 206-464-3146 or lstone@seattletimes.com. More columns at seattletimes.com/columnists