Outdoors Notebook | '08 chinook fishery has mixed forecast

While this year's spring chinook fisheries are winding down, many are looking into the crystal ball to see if next year will be feast or famine.

Fisheries managers are saying it could be a good-news, bad-news situation.

The early buzz is that the spring chinook return in 2008 could be a whopper as large as 300,000, which is similar to the huge runs in 2001 and 2002.

Fisheries managers use the 3-year-old jack chinook counts at Bonneville Dam to help predict the return of upper Columbia adult 4-year-old spring chinook the following year.

Through Thursday, the upriver jack chinook count was 18,169 at Bonneville, which points to an extraordinary return of jacks this year.

"In 2000, we saw a return of over 24,400 jack chinook, and the following year we had the mega-run of more than 400,000 fish [364,600 was the forecast]," said Joe Hymer, a state Fish and Wildlife biologist.

"While the upriver Columbia jack counts could be the second highest on record, the Willamette River jack returns could be the lowest on record."

So far, 158 jack chinook have returned to the Willamette River, and last year's record low return was 190.

"It is tracking as a record low return, and to have back-to-back years of low jack counts is not a good thing," Hymer said. "The Willamette returns have a big impact on the lower river fisheries."

A strong jack chinook return in 2001 contributed to a return of more than 295,000 upriver spring chinook in 2002 under a forecast of 333,700. But a robust jack return in 2003 resulted in an actual return of less than 200,000 in 2004 under a forecast of 360,700.

Returns since then have decreased to 106,900 (254,100 forecast) in 2005, and 132,100 (88,400) in 2006.

In 2006, 3,856 jack chinook were counted at Bonneville through June 15, and this year's adult upriver spring chinook return is earmarked between 80,500 and 84,000.

Fisheries managers will formally release the 2008 spring chinook forecast just before Christmas.

"If you look at it one way it looks great, but if you look at it both ways it could be interesting for lower river fisheries next year," Hymer said.

Notes

• The Northshore Chapter of Trout Unlimited Free Kids Fishing Pond Event is 10 a.m.-5 p.m. June 16-17 at Biringer Farm, 4625 40th Pl. N.E. in Marysville (Exit 195). Free for all under age 16. Details: 425-259-0255.

• State Fish and Wildlife is hosting a public meeting to discuss elk hunting plans in Game Management Unit 418 (Nooksack area) 6 p.m. June 20 at the CottonTree Inn, 2300 Market St. in Mount Vernon.

Enforcement officers and wildlife managers will answer questions about Nooksack elk and the interim fall state and tribal hunts. The proposal would allow 30 elk to be taken by state and tribal hunters. A recovery program established several years ago has allowed the herd to rebound from a low of about 300 elk to currently between 600 and 700.

• The Puget Sound Anglers of Lake Washington Auction is 6:30 p.m. Thursday at the Mercer View Community Center, 8236 S.E. 24th St. on Mercer Island. Items in the auction include a Scotty electric downrigger, fishing trips, rods, reels, tackle and more. Details: 425-885-3689.

• The Puget Sound Anglers Sno-King Chapter meeting is 6:30 p.m. Thursday at 220 Railroad Ave. in Edmonds, one block south of the ferry terminal. Skipper Randy Ratcliff will discuss how to prepare your boat for tuna fishing. Details: 425-493-1737.

• The Muskies Inc. Chapter Club of Washington meeting is 7 p.m. June 21 at the Denny's Restaurant, 2132 S. 320th Way in Federal Way. The chapter will focus on muskie fishing techniques and where to fish for them. Details: e-mail nwmuskie@comcast.net.

• The Renton Chapter of the Puget Sound Anglers meeting is 6:15 p.m. Wednesday at the Kennydale Memorial Hall, 2424 N.E. 27th St. in Renton. Tom Nelson of Salmon University will discuss techniques and gear for salmon fishing. Details: 206-218-9759 or www.rentonpsa.com.

• The Washington Chapter of the Ruffed Grouse Society Habitat Work Day is June 23 in the Mount Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest. Details: 206-667-8211 or 206-793-5336.

• The Washington Trails Association is hosting an event titled "Families Go Hiking," a series of interactive educational clinics and guided hikes for families.

All hikes begin at 10 a.m.; reservations are required. Dates: July 21, Rattlesnake Lake, Hiking with Toddlers, coinciding with TrailsFest; Sept. 15, Park Butte-Railroad Grade, exploring nature using your five senses; and Oct. 13, Heather Lake, fabulous fall colors.

There also will be a clinic at 6 p.m. June 26 at the Seattle REI store that will teach the basics of hiking with kids of all ages, including trip planning, trail food, safety tips and what to bring on hikes. Details: 206-625-1367 or www.wta.org.

• The Washington Fly Fishing Club dinner meeting is 5:30 p.m. June 19 in the Seattle area. Guest speaker is chef Tom Douglas, who will discuss how to cook fish. Reservations are required through the club's Web site only to attend the dinner meeting. Details: www.wffc.com.

• The U.S. Coast Guard Auxiliary has launched a "Wear It!" life-jacket campaign. The "Be a Survivor!" essay contest entry forms are available at all West Marine stores. Contestants can submit an original story (350-700 words) that describes how someone was saved by wearing a life jacket. All entries must be received by Sept. 4. Details: www.safeboatingcampaign.com or www.cgaux.org.

Mark Yuasa: 206-464-8780 or myuasa@seattletimes.com