Mariners' minds not dwelling on '06 draft

One year ago, the Mariners went into the June draft with the fifth overall pick, focused on getting a power arm that would be on the fast track to the major leagues.

It's hard to argue with their results, though many fans will. Bypassing both left-hander Andrew Miller of the University of North Carolina, the consensus pick of scouting gurus as the top pitching prospect in the draft, as well as University of Washington phenom Tim Lincecum, the Mariners chose California right-hander Brandon Morrow.

A year later, with another important draft looming on Thursday, it's still too early to say if the Mariners will ultimately be vindicated.

But it's not too early to say that Morrow has worked out beautifully so far. He made the big club out of spring training and has become a fixture in late relief. The Mariners say they still forecast Morrow as an eventual top-of-the-rotation starter.

But while Morrow has been solid and at times dominant out of the pen (1.77 ERA in 17 games through Friday, 21 strikeouts in 20-1/3 innings, .174 opponents average), Lincecum has been a starting sensation with the Giants, who grabbed him with the 10th overall pick.

After making a shambles of the minor leagues (4-0, 0.29 ERA, 46 strikeouts in 31 innings for Class AAA Fresno), he has shown signs of dominating at the major-league level as well (2-0, 3.24 in five starts, 33 strikeouts in 33-1/3 innings, .186 opponents batting average).

Miller, meanwhile, would have been on the Tigers' World Series roster if their opponent had been the lefty-heavy Mets. He worked six scoreless innings in a victory over the Cardinals in a spot start earlier this year, but now is back with Class AA Erie, for whom he has a 0.78 ERA in three starts.

Bob Fontaine, Mariners vice president of scouting, doesn't care to talk about Lincecum or Miller.

"You know what? I'm very delighted with the player we got," he said. "Obviously, [Lincecum] is a good-looking young pitcher. We acknowledged that last year. I'm excited about our kid — not only what he's done, but the potential he has to do other things.

"I said it last year and I'll say it again: He was the right guy for us. To have a guy go in the bullpen and also have the capability to be a starter, with the arm and stuff he has, he was the right guy. I said that then and meant it. I mean it just as much, if not more, now."

Fontaine said he went into last year's draft 99 percent sure the Mariners would take a pitcher with the first pick. This year, with the Mariners holding the 11th overall pick, that's no longer the case.

"Although there's a good chance we'll get a pitcher, it's not a certainty," he said. "We could also take a position player if one is there we like."

While Baseball America raves about the talent level in this year's draft, projecting "one of the best selections of players in recent memory," Fontaine is not quite as effusive.

"For me, it's a solid, average draft," he said. "I wouldn't say it's one of the best I've ever been through, and it's certainly not one of the worst. I'm finding more and more these things are similar every year. In five years, there will be guys playing in the big leagues from this draft."

Fontaine and his scouts have been combing the country for months evaluating talent. He recently returned from the Dominican Republic, where he took a last look at high-schooler Phillippe Aumont, a right-hander from Quebec who was pitching for Canada in a tournament.

Mariners scouts are amassing in Seattle for their final strategy sessions. The Mariners also have a pick in the supplemental round between the first and second round (52nd overall) as compensation for losing free-agent Gil Meche, followed by their regular second-round pick (75th overall).

Baseball America's latest draft projection has the Mariners using their top pick on North Carolina State right-hander Andrew Brackman, a 6-foot-10 flamethrower who played basketball for the Wolfpack.

Brackman has a tremendous upside but some worrisome issues, including the fact he has a stress fracture in his left hip and was said to have a tired arm late in the season. He has appeared just once, for four innings, in the last month, and didn't pitch in the ACC tournament.

Fontaine insists he genuinely has no idea whom the Mariners will take because of the uncertainty over the 10 teams above them.

"All it takes is one club in front of you to take a guy you didn't think they would, and everyone's thinking changes," he said. "I could see us having a good idea by Wednesday morning, and on Thursday saying, 'Let's see what happens.' You have to be prepared for everything."

The consensus No. 1 pick, which goes to Tampa Bay this year, is Vanderbilt lefty David Price, who is touted as being close to major-league ready. While the Devil Rays say they are also considering Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters and California high-school third baseman Josh Vitters, most scouts would be shocked if Price doesn't go No. 1.

Other top-rated college pitchers include lefties Daniel Moskos (Clemson), Ross Detwiler (Missouri State), Brett Cecil (Maryland) and Nick Schmidt (Arkansas) and righty Casey Weathers (Vanderbilt). This is considered to be a particularly strong draft for high-schoolers, with the possibility that they could outnumber college picks in the first round for the first time since 2002.

"I think the top part of the draft will be like last year, a majority of college players, and then as it gets going, there will be more of a strength in high school," Fontaine said.

Several changes will mark this year's draft, most notably the universal signing date of Aug. 15 for all except college seniors. The move is designed to give teams more leverage in negotiations; if teams don't sign their first- or second-round picks by that date, they will receive a similar pick the following year as compensation.

The change also effectively eliminates the "draft and follow" process, in which teams could monitor their late-round picks in junior college and decide whether to sign them prior to the next draft.

One more significant change: The draft will be televised live for the first time. ESPN2 will offer four hours of coverage from Disney's Wide World of Sports complex in Lake Buena Vista, Fla.

Special assistant Dan Evans, who once was known for his uncanny resemblance to actor Michael J. Fox, will be the Mariners' representative in Florida.

"They all fought for it," joked Fontaine. "I said, 'Fine, if you want to go, you can't go.' "

Larry Stone: 206-464-3146 or lstone@seattletimes.com.