Sonics | Beating the odds at the NBA draft lottery

A season of irrelevance would suddenly become meaningful should the NBA gods smile on Seattle tonight.

The injuries, the franchise record-setting 15-game road losing streak, the 22 losses by six points or less, coach Bob Hill's dismissal and general manager Rick Sund's demotion would all be forgotten if the Sonics were to get lucky and parlay their long odds of claiming one of the two top picks in the lottery into a winning combination of pingpong balls.

Chairman Clay Bennett said selecting either Ohio State center Greg Oden or Texas forward Kevin Durant, widely regarded as the top two players in the draft, would be "transformative" and could possibly help the team's push to gain public financing on a $500 million multi-purpose arena in Renton and ensure the team remains in the Northwest.

That's how important this lottery is for the Sonics, a team without a coach and general manager and facing the prospects of losing its second-best player Rashard Lewis to free agency. Seattle, which has made just one playoff appearance in the past five years and finished with its worst record since 1986 at 31-51, desperately needs a little good fortune to shine its way.

With so much at stake, it almost doesn't seem fair to decide the fates of so many franchises in disarray — Seattle, Memphis, Boston and the 11 other lottery participants — with a system based on odds and blind luck.

The Sonics, who have an 8.8 percent chance of landing the top pick, have never had the No. 1 pick in their 40-year history. Of the current 30 teams, only 10 have never had the top pick. Of those 10, only five (Boston, Denver, Indiana, New Orleans/Utah and Seattle) were in the league prior to the ABA/NBA merger in 1977.

Bennett believes the team is due for a little providence.

"You look at those teams near the top of the draft right now, and Seattle is the only one that you can say that would make a big jump next year if they were to get Oden or Durant," said Marques Johnson, an Fox Sports college basketball analyst and former Sonics analyst. "And by big jump, I mean into the playoffs and make some serious noise in the playoffs.

"You combine a guy like Oden — with his size he can control what you do on the defensive end — and then that allows guys like Ray Allen and Rashard to take care of the offense. That team needs a defensive stopper like Oden more than anybody else. You put Oden on that team and the Sonics are a playoff team next year and should compete for a championship in a few years."

Allen (26.4 points per game) and Lewis (22.4) were the third-highest scoring duo in the NBA last season with a 48.8 average behind Denver's Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson (55.2) and Houston's Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady (49.6).

"You add Durant to that mix and I'm not sure how things would work. Obviously with Rashard, both guys are long, lean and 6-10 so that gives you a lot of height at forward. The fit isn't as great compared to Oden, but you can always incorporate a guy who's capable of averaging 20 [points]and 10 [rebounds]."

Think of the San Antonio Spurs without Tim Duncan or the Cleveland Cavaliers without LeBron James, both No. 1 overall picks. Johnson believes Oden will have an impact similar to Duncan, and Durant has the potential to mirror James' career.

ESPN analyst Jay Bilas, however, compares Oden and Durant to basketball legends Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain, respectively.

"Chamberlain was the better player overall, but Russell was a winner and a guy who you could build around," Bilas said. "You've got to ask yourself, what do you want? Now Durant might be the guy who is the difference in a championship team, but there's no doubting that Oden is a legitimate low-post center who can anchor your offense and defense for a dozen years. And he wins."

Outside of Oden and Durant, the talent level of the draft prospects drops off considerably.

Johnson and Bilas believe there are as many as two future NBA All-Stars in the class outside of Oden and Durant, which puts this class on a par with the 2003 class of James, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh.

Both analysts rave about Ohio State's Mike Conley Jr. Bilas calls him the best point guard in the draft and has him rated the fifth-best player behind Oden, Durant, North Carolina's Brandan Wright and Florida's Al Horford.

"You put him in the '05 draft with Chris Paul and Deron Williams and you have a tough choice," Bilas said. "He is truly a special player. I think very highly of him. He'll win wherever he is."

Unlike many draft analysts, Johnson has Florida's Joakim Noah, Kansas' Julian Wright and North Carolina's Wright below sleeper picks such as USC guard Nick Young and Vanderbilt forward Derrick Byars.

"Byars is a senior who can shoot and those guys are rare," Johnson said. "Nick Young's game is tailored to this level. People don't know how athletic he is. He and Corey Brewer are going to have a similar impact like a Tayshaun Prince. A guy who can play defense, get double figures and be a defensive-stopper, point-forward type."

Bilas believes the NBA's one-year eligibility rule has made the draft four to five players deeper and said freshmen such as Washington's Spencer Hawes, Oden and Durant have benefited from their brief stay in school.

"The readiness of these players shouldn't be the question, because there's a whole bunch of them that aren't close to being ready to play in the NBA," he said. "But they are ready to be drafted and that's all the matters."

Percy Allen: 206-464-2278 or pallen@seattletimes.com