Originally published May 19, 2007 at 12:00 AM | Page modified May 19, 2007 at 2:01 AM

Handicapping the Preakness

The three big boys — Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin — have trekked East for the second jewel of the Triple Crown.



The field for today's 132nd Preakness Stakes with analysis by Seattle Times handicapper Gary Dougherty.
PP	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds	Record	Comment
1	Mint Slewlep	A.Garcia	R.Bailes	30	7-2-0-1	Two wins when bet heavy; up the track when ignored. I'd ignore today.
2	Xchanger	R.Dominguez	M.Shuman	15	8-3-0-2	Dazzled Pimlico fans in winning the Federico Tesio a month ago but not today.
3	Circular Quay	J.Velazquez	T.Pletcher	8	8-4-2-0	Don't circle or key the Pletcher runner in any exactas or trifectas.
4	Curlin	R. Albarado	S.Asmussen	7-2	4-3-0-1	Expect him to be much closer today but is he another Brother Derek?
5	King Of The Roxy	G.Gomez	T.Pletcher	12	7-3-2-0	Do you think an Ohio-bred, who cost $8K as a yearling, hits the board? Maybe.
6	Flying First Class	M.Guidry	D.Lukas	20	5-2-1-0	He'll be flying the first half and crawling the second half when it matters most.
7	Hard Spun	M.Pino	L.Jones	5-2	7-5-1-0	Ran his eyeballs out in the Derby. Mr. Pino better get him to relax behind runners today.
8	Street Sense	C.Borel	C.Nafzger	7-5	8-4-2-2	Affirmed won last Triple Crown when the top 3 were identical in Derby & Preakness.
9	C P West	E.Prado	N.Zito	20	5-1-3-0	Big-time connections but the number "1" in the win column will scare most away.
Post time is at 3:09 p.m.

The three big boys — Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin — have trekked East for the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

The top horses aren't ducking and resting for the Belmont in three weeks.

This is the seventh time since 1993 that the top three Kentucky Derby finishers have reunited at Pimlico. And the good news for Street Sense fans is that the Derby winner won three of them (Smarty Jones, Charismatic and Silver Charm). Two others finished third.

STREET SENSE received a dream trip in winning the Derby as he passed 16 rivals in the matter of moments and had dead aim on Hard Spun turning for home. The pace will be extremely fast and everything should go his way once again. Calvin Borel can flat-out ride and he has been popping off this week that his colt is ready to run another monster race. Borel will flash across the finish line at least 4 lengths ahead of his nearest rival and head to the Big Apple looking for the elusive Triple Crown.

HARD SPUN ran his race on Derby Day only to get passed by Street Sense. Jockey Mario Pino, who has ridden nearly 15,000 times at Pimlico, will need to make a big decision during the run into the first turn. Does he send? Or does he try to get the strapping bay to relax and rally from 3 to 4 lengths behind? Can't imagine Pino sending hard for the lead as this race has some good speed. But the Pennsylvania-bred has no experience at rallying from more than 3 lengths behind. He'll likely take control down the backstretch and try to hang on late.

KING OF THE ROXY has run just twice (a first and a second) since running in the Nov. 4, 2006 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He just missed winning the Santa Anita Derby but the time of the race wasn't that good. Think he should move forward today, and Garrett Gomez (finished tied atop the Santa Anita jockey standings) has been named to ride.

CURLIN wound up beating 17 in the Derby but was 8 lengths behind Street Sense at the wire. This is just his fifth career start, and he has yet to be in a dogfight turning for home. Not knowing how he'll respond to a stern challenge makes playing him on top too risky.

-- Gary Dougherty, Seattle Times handicapper

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