Mariners' improvement in 2006 turns up heat for 2007

Closing day is a fitting time to ask the baseball version of Ronald Reagan's famous question: "Is this team better off now than it was a year ago?"

The Mariners' players and staff addressed that very issue Sunday as they scurried off to their winter homes, and the answers were predictably sunny.

They ranged from the extreme of Raul Ibanez predicting a postseason berth next year for the Mariners, to manager Mike Hargrove's assessment that the '06 season was "a step down the right road — and I don't think there's any spin in that."

Well, maybe a slight spin, in light of the fact that the Mariners, despite their 3-2 victory over the Texas Rangers in the finale, had just finished their third consecutive last-place finish in the AL West. That's not easy to do with an $85 million payroll.

And Thursday's announcement that the brain trust of Hargrove and Bill Bavasi would return in 2007 didn't exactly set off a rush for season-ticket renewals. Not everyone is ready to trust their brains.

CEO Howard Lincoln set the tone for next season when he told reporters Friday that Hargrove and Bavasi "are on my hot seat," thus ensuring that there will be tremendous pressure on the Mariners to start off quickly next year.

Hargrove already is guaranteed to top every one of those "first manager to be fired" lists that crop up each spring. Any early slump by the Mariners will raise the immediate specter of imminent change, not exactly the healthiest environment for surviving the inevitable ebbs and flows of a 162-game season.

That said, Hargrove's assessment is accurate. The Mariners are better off today than they were a year ago, and contention in 2007 is not just wishful thinking.

They were, after all, still very much in the race this year until mid-August. As Willie Bloomquist noted Sunday, "We were one road trip away from being in this thing to the end."

Of course, that's like General Custer saying he was one road trip away from being right at Little Big Horn. The 0-11 trip to Texas, Oakland and Los Angeles was the defining moment of the season, not the 22-16 record that followed after the pressure was off.

Yet the Mariners solidified numerous positions that had been problem areas a year ago.

Catching went from a black hole to a solid area of strength with Kenji Johjima's excellent assimilation. Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez emerged as a solid double-play combination, and the resurrected bullpen, with J.J. Putz at the head, should be one of the best in baseball next year.

Ichiro's successful (though belated) switch to center field opens up a wealth of possibilities for a new corner outfielder with power.

The Mariners, however, must quickly resolve the Ichiro situation as he heads into the final year of his contract, or another potential distraction looms.

Ichiro is waiting to hear the Mariners' game plan for improvement before he re-ups, and he indicated this past week, without saying it directly, that his decision will depend on what he hears.

But it should be noted that unlike the Mariners' other departed icons — Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez and Lou Piniella, most notably — Ichiro is the only one that actually made Seattle his permanent home (except for a month or so each winter when he returns to Japan).

By all accounts, he loves it here, and he has repaired his relationship with Hargrove. Ichiro won't come cheap, but the Mariners should make an extension of his contract their first move of the winter.

Beyond that, Bavasi will have to be at his most creative in filling the obvious needs for this team — two new starting pitchers and that elusive power bat. He must be aggressive in the trade market (with no untouchables except Felix Hernandez) and shrewd in free agency, without getting swept away in the zeal to overpay for mediocre talent.

But if Bavasi can land, say, Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka to team at the top of the rotation with Hernandez — who is primed next year, at age 21, to take the final step to acedom — and trade for a solid hitter, then Ibanez could be prescient. At any rate, the Mariners should finally hop back to the good side of the .500 mark.

If not, well, Howard Lincoln's hot seat will be absolutely sizzling.

Larry Stone: 206-464-3146 or lstone@seattletimes.com. More columns at www.seattletimes.com/columnists