BERLIN — Michael Ballack looked at scorelines from recent matches between Italy and Germany and drew a grim conclusion.
"We really stand no chance," the German captain said on the eve of today's semifinal match between Germany and Italy in Dortmund. "They beat us clearly and dominated us. Everything speaks against Germany. It's a wonderful feeling."
Ballack was joking, of course. But he could have been serious.
Italy thrashed Germany 4-1 in a friendly in March that nearly cost coach Juergen Klinsmann his job. In four World Cup meetings, Germany has never beaten Italy, including two draws. Their most recent World Cup match was the 1982 final, which Italy won 3-1. Italy also leads the all-time series 13-7, with eight draws.
Germany hasn't lost since that March game, a run of nine matches. But Italy is unbeaten in 23 games.
World Cup history may be on Italy's side, but Germany is playing at home, has never lost at Dortmund's noisy stadium and has only one draw in 14 games.
"We are really looking forward to playing in Dortmund; it adds to our faith and confidence," Ballack said. "We are hot and we want to be in the final."
Today
Germany vs. Italy, 11:55 a.m.
Wednesday
Portugal vs. France, 11:55 a.m.
Italy won't be without its supporters, thanks in part to a large Italian community in the area. Most immigrants come from Italy's southern regions of Calabria, Puglia and Sicily.
"It would bring them a huge amount of joy if Italy were able to beat Germany, although we've got to remember it's just a game of soccer," midfielder Gennaro Gattuso said.
Germany had a tougher road into the semifinals, only getting past Argentina on penalties after a 1-1 draw in extra time.
Italy cruised past Ukraine 3-0 and has conceded only an own goal. Its toughest obstacles during this tournament have come from home.
The Azzurri have persevered through a Serie A corruption scandal and the grave condition of former teammate Gianluca Pessotto, who was hospitalized in Turin after falling out of a window.
"Italy is one of the best teams in the world and that's why it's in the final four," Klinsmann said. "We think that with our style and game we can beat them, though. And that's what we are going to do."
Ballack, who proclaimed himself fit from a calf injury suffered in the Argentina match, gave three reasons he thought were enough for Germany to win — the team is on a roll, its confidence is great, and its fans are becoming a factor.
But Germany's chances were dealt a blow Monday when FIFA suspended midfielder Torsten Frings for punching Argentina forward Julio Cruz in a fracas following their match.
Frings must sit out two matches, but one was suspended six months, meaning he could return for the finals if Germany wins.