NBA Draft: Hidden gems can be found in 2nd round

The "diamond in the rough" theory of the NBA draft means several general managers will make a bevy of mistakes in evaluations during Wednesday's draft, thus allowing the diligent GM who did his homework to find quality players — perhaps even a future All-Star — in the second round.

Those who believe this argument cite Gilbert Arenas, Rashard Lewis, Michael Redd and Manu Ginobili as evidence.

However, there's also an alternative theory supported by a long list of second-round flameouts. It suggests that the latter round, once considered the place where rare gems could be discovered by those who looked long and hard enough, has become a barren and irrelevant wasteland.

It has been 17 years since the NBA reduced the draft to its current two-round format. In 1988, the draft consisted of three rounds. Before that, there were seven rounds from 1985-87; 10 rounds from 1974-1984 (with the exception of 1977, when there were eight); and in '73, it was 20 rounds.

As the league expanded from 17 teams in '73 to 30 today, the number of draft rounds dwindled, as did the chances of players making an NBA roster who were not selected in the first round.

Of the 30 second-round picks last year, 14 never played a game. In 2004, 20 of the 30 second picks didn't pan out; 20 of 29 failed to make a roster in '03; and 24 out of 30 picks in '02 are no longer in the league.

Several of the NBA's talent evaluators who gathered in Orlando, Fla., for the league's predraft camp noted that 13 free-agent rookies made an NBA roster last season, giving rise to speculation that the second round is no longer important.

"I have no doubt that some people are asking those questions, but I believe two rounds are important and the league has found out that teams can find players down there," said Sonics scout Steve Rosenberry.

"We're all seduced by the early-entry guys and they go in the first round. The seniors tend to fall. You look at [Stanford's] Matt Haryasz and guys like [West Virginia's] Kevin Pittsnogle, and they're probably in that [No.] 28 to 42 range. You're going to find a guy there that can make your team and play. You won't have to pay them a gazillion dollars, so I think there's a lot of value in the second round."

For teams, the beauty of drafting second-rounders is the money they save.

For example, Seattle's first-round pick, 10th overall, will earn about $1.5 million next season and receive a four-year deal, in which the first two years are guaranteed.

A second-round pick gets no assurances, and if he makes the roster, he would receive slightly more than $400,000 in salary for the season.

"You find one of those guys [a second-rounder], and say they make your rotation. Then you've more than earned your money for that year," said Dave Pendergraft, the Sonics' director of basketball operations. "Drafting 1, 2 or 3, we all could do that. While the consequences are higher, there's fewer mistakes. Drafting in the second round can be a crapshoot unless you have a plan and know what you're doing."

Selecting at No. 10, the Sonics have their highest draft pick since choosing Gary Payton No. 2 overall in 1990. However, Seattle, which also has the 40th and 53rd picks, is putting just as much emphasis on its second-round picks.

"I could have brought in six guys and we could have exhausted our 10th-pick possibilities," Pendergraft said. "But at the end of the day, we're going to have 48 guys in here. You have to work it. You have to interview those guys. You have to go through the process."

That process found forwards Reggie Evans and Damien Wilkins in free agency in recent years and established the Sonics' scouting department as one of the best in the NBA, along with those of Memphis, San Antonio, Indiana, Phoenix and Philadelphia.

"This is my first time going through it with them, and one of the things that impresses me is the open dialogue," Sonics coach Bob Hill said. "If you don't agree with a particular opinion, you're encouraged to speak up and get it out there. But at the end of the day, you must align."

Admittedly, Lewis unexpectedly fell to the Sonics in the 1998 second round, but since Pendergraft arrived in 1999, the Sonics have struck gold in the second round either drafting for themselves or another team.

In 2001, Seattle selected Earl Watson and Bobby Simmons, then traded Simmons' rights to Washington. In 2003, the Sonics traded second-rounder Willie Green to Philadelphia, and last year they drafted Mickael Gelebale and Lawrence Roberts in the second round.

Gelebale, who played in Spain last season, is expected to join Seattle this year, while Roberts was traded to Memphis for two future second-round picks and cash.

"It's very difficult to draft that late and expect to get a sure thing," Rosenberry said. "You just kind of take the best athlete that you can get. With Earl we were lucky. We were looking for a backup point guard. He was there, so we took him.

"This year at 40, I would be surprised if that guy is not good enough to make our team. When I get into the 50s, like 48-60, that's my flyer guy. But 38-45, we spend a lot of time looking at that board for a guy of need who can make our team. I would think that with this pick, depending on what we do with 10, it could be a big [man], and there's going to be a ton of them still around."

A couple of factors have changed the theory on how teams are viewing second-rounders.

For starters, this will be the first draft without high-school players, which, in effect, takes some of the guesswork out of the evaluations.

"To a certain degree, we'll have to more accountable," Sonics general manager Rick Sund said. "You can't say anymore that you didn't see a guy because unless you're talking about an international kid, there's plenty of tape on everybody."

The formation of the developmental league also allows teams to draft players who might not be NBA-ready prospects.

"A few years ago, teams were a little reluctant to send guys to the minors thinking that out of sight meant out of mind," Pendergraft said. "Now it's a very valuable thing. We've had two or three guys in where their upside is more than we anticipated when we observed them at their universities.

"So maybe you take a guy like that. Send them down for half a season in the D-League, where you can keep your eye on him and watch their development. We haven't seen much of that yet, but more and more teams are going to do that."

Note

• Citing multiple unnamed sources, draftexpress.com reported the Sonics and Phoenix Suns are working on a trade that may involve Lewis and Shawn Marion, as well as Seattle exchanging the No. 10 pick for the Suns' No. 27.

Other trade rumors have the Sonics dealing Ray Allen to Toronto in exchange for the No. 1 overall pick and a handful of players.

Sund did not return messages on Sunday, and the reports are unsubstantiated. However, a team source confirmed the Sonics would like to move forward Danny Fortson, who asked to be traded after the season.

Percy Allen: 206-464-2278 or pallen@seattletimes.com