Who will be player of the year?

Who knows? Who can say what J.J. Redick or Adam Morrison might be plotting for the third week of March, when the NCAA basketball tournament tips off?

Just assume it will probably be spectacular, and it will likely be answered by something else that merely sustains what might be the greatest seasonal debate in the history of the college game:

Who's the player of the year?

"I don't know," says ESPN's Jay Bilas, in what is both an empty yet pregnant observation. "It's Morrison or Redick, and everybody else is just going to be bystanders."

Now let's not sell history short. There have been some phenomenal duels for the honor of being judged the best collegian.

In 1968, for instance, Elvin Hayes won a slimmer array of trophies — there was no Wooden or Naismith award then — over UCLA's Lew Alcindor, presumably because Hayes' Houston team nipped UCLA on Jan. 20 in the Astrodome. Hayes was named, and it was too late to take it all back when UCLA got its pound of flesh from Houston in the NCAA tournament, 101-69. (Alcindor won the awards in 1967 and 1969.)

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The key awards for men's college basketball national player of the year:

Naismith Trophy

Who selects: A "board" of 1,100 coaches, media and administrators, but 25 percent is allocated to fan voting via a text messaging component of Cingular wireless.

The process: Four finalists will be named shortly after March 15, and voting will take place through April 1.

The announcement: April 3.

Wooden Award

Who selects: About 1,000 sportswriters and sportscasters, after a 26-person advisory board sets the ballot.

The process: Finalists are announced March 6; voting takes place until March 27.

The announcement: April 8, at a black-tie dinner at Los Angeles Athletic Club.

Associated Press

Who selects: 72 media members who regularly vote in the AP poll.

The process: Voters submit choices at the time of their final poll vote March 12.

The announcement: March 31.

U.S. Basketball Writers Oscar Robertson Trophy

Who selects: USBWA board via conference call March 6, with voting recommendation by overall membership.

The announcement: March 31.

Basketball Times

Who selects: The publication's editors, before the NCAA tournament.

The announcement: Last week in March.

NABC

Who selects: The national coaches governing body's 18-member board, via conference call March 20.

The announcement: April 2.

Bud Withers

Somewhat surprisingly, Larry Bird swept the awards in 1979 — surprising only in that a sophomore named Magic Johnson was leading Michigan State to the championship.

In 1985, the year the Big East came to full flower as a national bully with three teams in the Final Four, the awards were divvied equally by Chris Mullin of St. John's and Patrick Ewing of Georgetown, a nice little intra-conference squabble.

In 1991, LSU's Shaquille O'Neal and UNLV's Larry Johnson were all the rage. They, too, shared the awards booty. And that's awards, plural; there is no college-hoops parallel to football's Heisman Trophy.

This race seems different. It's East (OK, with a Southern lean) versus West. It's No. 1 Duke, the preeminent program of its era, against the mom-and-pop-school-that-could, No. 5 Gonzaga.

Moreover, there's this: While we all recognize the value of rebounders, shot-blockers, passers and defenders, the game at its heart is about making shots, whether you're in overtime at the NCAA title game, or doing something ingenious in a game of H-O-R-S-E in your driveway.

The fascination over the Redick-Morrison competition is thus extreme, because the two are shot-makers extraordinaire, ridiculously good at doing what they do. Morrison is first nationally at 28.8 points per game and Redick is second at 28.0.

"Morrison, if you don't have a 6-9 guy with some athleticism to guard him, he's getting 40," says John Calipari, the Memphis coach, whose team played both Duke and Gonzaga. "Redick, you have to have a long athlete that's more athletic, and that may not work. He just goes out deeper and deeper."

They know each other a little and have faced off long-distance in games of XBox "Halo 2." But the serve-and-volley that has enthralled the college game has taken place on the floor:

• The 6-8 Morrison launched his candidacy early by scoring 43 points in a triple-overtime screamer over Michigan State, and followed with another 43 in a losing effort at Washington.

• On Dec. 10, Redick (6-4) lobbed in nine threes for 41 points as top-rated Duke rocked No. 2 Texas. A couple of hours later, Morrison, shadowed by a couple of those long, tall athletes Calipari talked about, willed in a 20-foot bank shot to beat Oklahoma State at the wire at KeyArena.

• At Georgetown on Jan. 21, Redick had 41 for the Blue Devils in their first loss. Two days later, Morrison rocketed in 41 at San Francisco.

• On Jan. 28, Redick scored 40 on Virginia on an unheard-of 13 shots. Hours later, all Morrison could do against Portland was go for 42, on 14-of-26 shooting.

• On Feb. 14 against Wake Forest, Redick became the NCAA's all-time leader in three-point shots made. Four days later at Loyola Marymount, Morrison, stifled by a sagging zone defense, left the floor at intermission with seven points. Then he rifled in 37 in the second half for a career-high 44, enough to bring Kobe Bryant out to see him two nights later at Pepperdine.

"I came close at halftime," said ABC/ESPN analyst Jimmy Dykes, who called that Gonzaga-Loyola game. "If I'd had time to say it, I'd have said, 'I know he's got seven now, but he's good enough to end up with 27.' "

Or 44.

Even on the rare occasion when they're held down, they do it in lockstep. Saturday, nearly a continent apart, Redick and Morrison each was limited to a season-low 11 points, on a day when Redick broke the ACC career scoring record.

So let the debate begin:

Morrison, the nation's leading scorer, is a more versatile all-around offensive player, owing to his height. Redick is a better pure shooter.

Redick plays better defense, if marginally. (In the past, Morrison has been seen in a classic gunner's T-shirt, emblazoned with: "If It Weren't For Offense, I'd Play Defense.")

Redick plays in a better league, the Atlantic Coast Conference. On the other hand, Redick has the luxury of five McDonald's high school All-American teammates, plus center Shelden Williams, a certain first-team All-American.

Morrison is a better rebounder. Redick is more likely to pass the ball.

And so on.

"It's probably as compelling a story as there is, not only in basketball, but in America right now," says Virginia coach Dave Leitao, whose team has faced both Duke and Gonzaga. "I'd probably think it's fitting if they share the player-of-the-year award."

Indeed, with Redick and Morrison, two different kinds of offensive players, it seems all about splitting hairs. While Redick incinerated Virginia in that Jan. 28 meeting and Morrison had 27 against the Cavaliers, Morrison went for 34 against Calipari's Memphis team, despite being held scoreless down the stretch, while Memphis shut out Redick in the second half after he had 15 at the break.

The disparate challenges they present is evident in Memphis' games against them. While Rodney Carney — Memphis' own peripheral player-of-the-year candidate — cooled off Redick, he had no luck against Morrison, turning that over to Shawne Williams.

"Rodney couldn't guard [Morrison]," Calipari said. "We talked about it later. He said, 'He's shootin' tear-drops over me.' It wasn't that he wasn't guarding him, he wasn't big enough."

Two weeks ago, Leitao weighed in on behalf of Redick. He laughs, "Morrison probably heard me. He went out and scored 37 in the second half. You become at the mercy of his desire and his skill."

Redick scored 27 and 35 against Gary Williams' Maryland team this season, while Morrison had 25. Williams favors Redick, saying, "I just have to kind of lean his way. I just feel like I have a better feel for Redick. What he's done is amazing."

Dykes, the TV commentator, not only saw Morrison's explosion against Loyola, he was there when Redick lit up Virginia with his 40.

"I made up my mind as that [Loyola] game went on," Dykes said. "From that day forward, the rest of this year, I was going to cast my vote for Adam being player of the year.

"Everything J.J. Redick can do, Adam can also do. But J.J. can't say the same thing about Adam. That extra four inches allows Adam to be a better rebounder in traffic, to get the putback, to make the tough two-pointer in traffic."

Bilas, a former Duke player, doesn't put Redick in his all-time Duke five, but calls him the best shooter the tradition-rich school has had, possibly the best he's seen. Both Bilas and Dykes scoff at the refrain that Morrison's portfolio dims because of lesser opponents in the West Coast Conference.

It's easily proven that Redick has faced overall better competition. But Morrison's numbers hardly fluctuate with the opponent.

When the Zags began WCC play in January, he was averaging 27.8 points, to 29.3 now. Against the 10 teams Gonzaga has played in the RPI computer top 100 — everybody from Connecticut to Memphis to Michigan State to St. Louis — Morrison has averaged 29.2 points and shot 50.8 percent, 43.1 percent on threes.

Split votes? They've been relatively common, among as many as three players. In 2003, Texas' T.J. Ford won the Naismith and Wooden awards, Nick Collison of Kansas took away the NABC trophy and David West of Xavier won the AP and Basketball Writers awards.

It's a two-horse field in 2006, the year J.J. Redick and Adam Morrison have given it their best shot, all of them.

Bud Withers: 206-464-8281 or bwithers@seattletimes.com