Arizona team to beat in Pac-10

LOS ANGELES — There seems to be a simple rule to selecting the preseason favorite in the Pac-10: When in doubt, pick Arizona.

For the 11th time since the 1989-90 season, the Wildcats were chosen to win the conference in a poll of media members that was released at the conference's annual media day Thursday in Los Angeles.

But unlike a number of those years — when Arizona's selection was virtually unanimous — this time there is some legitimate doubt, even in the eyes of the Wildcats.

"I think how the media voted on this is more a testament to the program through the years, more than what it may look like in terms of returning guys," said Arizona coach Lute Olson.

Arizona received 23 of the 32 first-place votes with Stanford finishing second, UCLA third and Washington fourth.

But it wouldn't be a shock if the final order ended reversed — and it would surprise everyone if Arizona waltzed easily to the title.

Indeed, parity was the theme of the day among the coaches, who all seem to feel there is little likelihood the race will evolve the way it has the past few years. In 2003, for instance, Arizona was never challenged and won with a 17-1 record. Stanford did the same in 2004, and last year Arizona and Washington battled only each other all season, each finishing way above the pack.

"I'll be shocked if someone ran away with the league this year," said UW coach Lorenzo Romar. "I would say if there's a team that finishes 16-2, 17-1 this year, then they have to be up for winning the national championship. If you survive this league with that type of record, you are pretty good."

Said Huskies guard Brandon Roy, one of five players to attend the event: "This year it's going to be more of a battle between four or five teams. There's not that much difference between the first-place team and the eighth-place team. It's going to be so close."

One reason for the expected tightness is some key personnel losses to the top teams.

There are only two returning All-Pac-10 players (Stanford's Dan Grunfeld and Chris Hernandez) from the 10-man team, the fewest since 1986. Washington (Nate Robinson, Tre Simmons) and Arizona (Channing Frye, Salim Stoudamire) lost two each.

Still, the conference doesn't lack star power, considering the return of Roy and Arizona guard Hassan Adams, who each flirted with the NBA before deciding to stay; and the emergence of Oregon guard Malik Hairston, California forward Leon Powe — healthy after missing last year due to a knee injury — and Stanford forward Matt Haryasz.

The other reason for the assumed parity is that the middle and the bottom of the conference is starting to creep up, with Oregon and Cal primed to return to winning consistently and Oregon State and Washington State more stable than they have been in years. Even USC, which features a guard trio that could be as talented as any in the conference, looms as a scary team under first-year coach Tim Floyd.

Washington State coach Dick Bennett said the Pac-10 will be the best from top to bottom of his three years in Pullman.

"I think it was just OK the first year I was here and I thought it was quite a bit better than OK last year and I think it will be good this year," Bennett said. "This one will probably have more capable teams this year than last year."

The Huskies have long since moved past capable. Enough that Romar and Roy each were asked if they considered it a slight that UW didn't finish higher than fourth in the poll.

"It's better than fifth," laughed Romar, who took little offense at the selection and had little problem with Arizona being picked to finish first despite losing Frye and Stoudamire. "Arizona's been down this road before where they've lost some really good players [and been successful]."

Roy, however, planned to make sure his teammates knew of the poll.

"We are a little disappointed," he said. "We believe we should be picked in the top two. At the same time, it keeps us with the mentality we had last year when we really fed off of feeling that the East Coast teams get all the credit, and we used that to our advantage.

"The season is so long you need some mini-battles to push through to get better, so we are going to use this one right now."

Bob Condotta: 206-515-5699 or bcondotta@seattletimes.com

Pac-10 media poll
Predicted order of finish, with first-place votes in parentheses:
#	Team	Pts.
1.	Arizona (23)	325
2.	Stanford (9)	294
3.	UCLA (2)	263
4.	Washington	238
5.	Cal	212
6.	Oregon	183
7.	Oregon State	132
8.	USC	87
9.	Washington State	86
10.	Arizona State	50