The Big Apple has been blessed of late with six horses attempting to win the Triple Crown in the past nine runnings of the $1 million Belmont Stakes.

But this year it's an interesting rematch between the first two winners — Giacomo and Afleet Alex.

A dozen times since 1956 the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners have faced off for a third in the 1 ½-mile race. The Middle Jewel winner leads the series 6-3 and on three occasions the race was won by an outsider. If either Giacomo or Afleet Alex wins today, he will be odds-on to win an Eclipse Award as the top 3-year-old for 2005. That's the main reason both have come to New York to compete at a distance that neither one will ever have to run again.

The best horse on paper doesn't always win, especially in this race, because of the outlandish length of the race. Afleet Alex is simply not a lock as 16 of the past 21 runners (since 1979) to be less than 2-1 went back to their stall an exhausted loser. Heroes like Spectacular Bid (1-5), Pleasant Colony (4-5), Alysheba (4-5), Sunday Silence (4-5), Unbridled (even), Silver Charm (even), Real Quiet (4-5), Funny Cide (even) and Smarty Jones (1-5) all got beat at the throw-back distance. If you'd bet $100 on each of the 21 runners, you would be in the hole $895.

So what do you do if you want to make a smart win wager on the race. I say bet the 4, 6, 7, 8 and 10 to win. Crazy? Yes, but this race can be a grab-bag at times. How goofy is it? Birdstone at 36-1 runs down Smarty Jones in 2004, Sarava shocks us at 70-1 in 2002, Commendable does it in 2000 at 18-1 and Lemon Drop Kid (29-1) heads out Vision and Verse (54-1) in 1999.

Put a few additional dollars on REVERBERATE as he might be peaking at the right time. This will be his third start after a 3-month layoff. He's bred to handle the distance, and if he's feeling good, he could give you a good run for your money. Or he could bog down late and miss the board. At least you're getting around 8-1.

GIACOMO will try to hit the board in all three Triple Crown races. His running style should lend him to an in-the-money finish. At least one horse that was running seventh or worse after the first quarter-mile has finished in the top three the past seven times when the field size was 8 or more.

Dougherty's picks


1st: Reverberate

2nd: Giacomo

3rd: Afleet Alex

4th: Watchmon

The connections of AFLEET ALEX had the perfect excuse to not run in the marathon-like race. The 3-year-old was nearly put to the canvas at the quarter-pole while on his way to a feel-good victory three weeks ago at Pimlico. They could have skipped today's race and received complaints and waited for some big pots down the line at normal race distances. In addition, he could have gotten some R&R. But here he is, and he will be a very short price if you're betting on him.

WATCHMON just ran his best race to date, finishing second in an allowance race over this oval three weeks ago. The last two times when neither the Derby nor Preakness winner won the rematch, the winner (Colonial Affair and Temperence Hill) had previously raced at Belmont Park.