Minor League Baseball
Farm report: Prospect Nelson looks for breaks

By Bob Sherwin
Seattle Times staff reporter

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It comes down to one thing for Mariners outfield prospect Jon Nelson: What kind of adjustments can he make?

He seems to have everything else. He is a big guy — 6 feet 5, 220 pounds — with a rare combination of power and speed. He is athletic. He runs well, throws well and looks like a baseball player. But at age 24 and still playing for Class A Inland Empire, if he is to have a straight road to the major leagues, he will have to hit the crooked pitch.

"He breaks down on breaking balls. He doesn't recognize them as quickly," said Roger Jongewaard, the Mariners' special assistant to the general manager. "Just when I say that, I saw him in San Bernardino recently when he hit a slider to left to win a ballgame.

"Last year he had a lot of trouble when I saw him in Wisconsin. But this year he has made better adjustments and done a nice job. The better the athlete, the better chance he will make the adjustments. He has made a lot of improvement, no question."

Nelson, hitting .302, leads the Missions in home runs (14), runs batted in (75), steals (22) and total bases (171) and is tied for doubles (24) and runs scored (71). Those numbers put him 10th in home runs, fifth in RBI, ninth in total bases and 10th in steals in the California League.

However, his 124 strikeouts in 401 at-bats places him third in the league. He has 32 more than anyone on his team.

"It varies. One guy who had real serious trouble with the breaking ball who turned out to be a pretty good player was Matt Williams," Jongewaard said. "I saw him in college, and he knew it was coming and he still couldn't hit it. That was a very big concern for me, but not for the (San Francisco) Giants, who took him high in the draft. He adjusted and did well (17 seasons, 378 home runs).

"They used to say guys who couldn't hit the breaking ball, they end up being good breaking-ball hitters because they see so many. If you are going to make it, you have to do it. He might end up being a good breaking-ball hitter. Who knows?"

Nelson, the Mariners' 26th-round selection in 2001 out of Dixie College in St. George, Utah, has completed a two-year Mormon mission, which explains his age in a younger league.

"So he hasn't played a lot of baseball," Jongewaard said.
 
Nelson started his pro career in Everett in 2002, hitting .234 with 17 home runs and 64 RBI. He struck out 96 times in 274 at-bats. His numbers improved the next season in Class A Wisconsin, as he hit .264 with 16 home runs, had a Midwest League-leading 38 doubles and was third in RBI with 91. He also had 168 strikeouts in 537 at-bats.

He has upped his numbers with the Missions but hasn't curbed the strikeouts yet. He has 388 in 1,212 at-bats, 32 percent.