Horse Racing
Analysis: Distance will be key for victory

By Gary Dougherty
Seattle Times handicapper

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Remember when gas was a measly 70 cents, and a box seat and a beer at a Mariners game cost $7?

Remember when Mike Baze was on his way to winning the Longacres riding title, Crafty Native and Ginger Sauce were responding to "There They Go," and Kathy Walsh was leading the trainers in wins at the old racetrack?

We're talking 1978.

That was the last time a 3-year-old swept the Triple Crown. That year, Affirmed became the 11th Triple Crown winner.

SMARTY JONES, with the first two legs secure, will try today to link his name to Triple Crown winners like Secretariat, Citation, Seattle Slew and War Admiral.

The name also could be remembered among the likes of Funny Cide, Real Quiet, Silver Charm and others who got tripped up in the 1½-mile Belmont Stakes.

Today's racehorse is not bred to run such a distance, especially after running two physically demanding races in the previous five weeks.

If Smarty Jones paces himself through the first mile and doesn't get asked to run until the 3/8th pole, then he has a good shot. But don't anoint him the winner until he crosses the finish line. In 1997, Real Quiet had a four-length lead turning for home and couldn't get the job done.

Then again, this Pennsylvania-bred might be just a "machine" like Secretariat and will win no matter what happens in the race.
 
PURGE makes his first appearance in the Triple Crown series and should come into the race on his toes, as he was an easy winner on the Belmont surface two weeks ago. Purge has run his best races from off the pace, but breaking from post two might compromise his chances of getting the "perfect trip."

ROCK HARD TEN makes just his fifth career start but should be able to handle the distance. At the Preakness, he might have run 1-1/2 miles in last, as Gary Stevens had him in the middle of the Pimlico racetrack for most of the contest. He has a decent shot at a minor placing, especially if he handles his surroundings a little better than he did on Preakness Day.

EDDINGTON is eligible to run in the first race of the day at Belmont. He would be the favorite for a first prize of $34,800. But he wouldn't be on national TV and his owners couldn't brag that they had a runner in the Belmont. At least he's bred for distance.