Larry Stone / Baseball reporter
Mariners might not get a lot for Garcia

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As the Mariners tinker with their roster and ponder remedies in the midst of this dismal season, it is increasingly clear that one decision — the future of Freddy Garcia — looms paramount.

And they can't afford to get it wrong.

The popular assumption is that Garcia might as well pack his bags now, because he is as good as gone prior to the July 31 trading deadline.

According to this line of thinking — and it's a valid one, following industry protocol — he is their most marketable player, an ace pitcher in a league that treasures them, especially in the heat of a pennant race.

Just as Garcia's arrival with Carlos Guillen in the Randy Johnson trade with Houston in 1998 provided a necessary infusion of talent in the Mariners' last down cycle, so could his departure replenish their talent base now.

But those convinced it's a slam dunk that the Mariners can parlay Garcia, a pending free agent, into a treasure trove of young prospects on the verge of stardom might have a rude awakening. In recent days, I canvassed several general managers on Garcia's trade value, promising anonymity in exchange for frank assessments.

The consensus of the group, which included GMs from both leagues, many of whom have had identical decisions in recent years, is that it is exceedingly difficult to get fair market value for a "rent-a-player," regardless of talent level.

That conclusion comes with an important proviso, however: If the M's can find a desperate team, or better yet, multiple desperate teams, then you never know.

"I certainly think they'll get a shot at some pretty good prospects at the upper level, but I don't think they'll take someone's premium guy," said one GM. "It depends on the teams in the hunt, and how much they need pitching. Teams will overreact at times."

"The more money he makes, the less value he has," said another. "Not many teams are willing to pick up the money. If you get two prospects, one would be definite, one mild. You're not going to get more than that."
 
A third GM said, "The dilemma for a team looking to move a premium player is, does the team matching up with you even have what you would expect in return? Sometimes you end up with quantity, three or four players, just to make it look better. In reality, the quality is not there."

One GM said of the Mariners' haul in the Johnson deal (which included John Halama as well), "I'm not sure in the past decade there's been as good a package. But the Astros were a team with not a lot of postseason success, and they decided to overpay to have a chance for something special."

The history of subsequent midseason deals for quality pitchers facing free agency is spotty, at best. In 1999, Oakland sent Blake Stein, Jeff D'Amico and Brad Rigby to Kansas City for Kevin Appier. In 2000, Philadelphia received Travis Lee, Omar Daal, Vincent Padilla and Nelson Figueroa from Arizona for Curt Schilling. In 2001, the Pirates sent Jason Schmidt to San Francisco for Armando Rios and Ryan Vogelsong. And last year, the Orioles dealt Sidney Ponson to the Giants for Kurt Ainsworth, Damian Moss and Ryan Hannaman.

None of the deals has done much for the team sending away the pitching, though Padilla made the All-Star team two years ago. The Mariners' best hope is that the current burst of parity, particularly in the National League, has more than half the teams thinking they're contenders.

"If past winter spending habits are any indication, I don't think too many teams can spend a lot of money to acquire talent in midseason," said a GM. "But the pressure of pennant races sometimes does crazy things to people.

"You can't discount the higher-echelon teams looking for a difference-maker — the Red Sox, Yankees, probably the Dodgers, who have a new owner and are off to a better start. But a lot of the higher-echelon teams are not prospect rich, because they've traded prospects away in these kinds of trades, and some haven't been able to restock. The Yankees and Red Sox are not full of quality prospects."

One GM predicted the White Sox as the likeliest trade partner, suggesting young pitcher Jon Rauch and/or outfielders Aaron Rowand and Joe Borchard, a former Stanford quarterback, as possible returns. He also mentioned the Phillies and small-market teams Twins and Reds as darkhorses if they get pennant fever.

"I think Garcia will bring you back a good prospect," he said. "I'm not saying he would be in the 'A' category, but he's going to be a good 'B' category prospect."

"They'll be able to move him," added a GM, "but odds are against getting fair value. Still, anything is better than nothing, plus they clear his salary. If they make the decision they're not going anywhere, and they can't re-sign him, it's a wasting asset."

It's all sobering enough to make you think that the Mariners should put their efforts in another direction — a pre-emptive strike to re-sign Garcia to a multi-year extension.

It is, after all, the best way to ensure they get fair market value for Garcia, who represents the most difficult piece to obtain for rebuilding teams — a staff ace.

It would also be the first sign to an increasingly skeptical fan base that management is ready to pay the price to fix this mess — especially with the very real possibility that trading Garcia won't be a panacea after all.