Jon Talton
Analysis and commentary on economic news, trends and issues, with an emphasis on Seattle and the Northwest.
Blog Home |
E-mail Jon |
Subscribe | Twitter feed |
Read Jon's weekly columns
Comments (0)
E-mail article
Print
Share
Ahead of the Bernanke press conference, questions and worries
Posted by Jon Talton
I have to admit, I have mixed feelings about Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's decision to hold a press conference after the two-day meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee wraps up Wednesday.
On the one hand, transparency is good. I wish we would have had a chance to question Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner (and his predecessor Hank Paulson) when they were desperately improvising during the panic of the fall of 2008. I'd love to know, for example, what exactly are the $2 trillion in "assets" sitting on the books of the central bank? And, even if the Fed can turn on a dime to snuff out inflation, how can it do so without sending a fragile economy into a new recession? Why is the Fed allowing the TBTF banks and the shadow banking system to return to business-as-usual gambling on derivatives?
On the other hand, much of the media and most Americans are financially illiterate. It doesn't take a Nobel in economics (or a Pulitzer Prize) to see how the press conference could degenerate into foolishness. Central banking is complicated and not suited for a nation intellectually accustomed to American Idol. Pulling back the curtain on the mystery behind Fed actions risks volatility and miscalculations by everyone from the Wall Street playerz to other central banks.
We're sure to hear a slew of questions about the strength of the dollar, which has fallen 6.6 percent this year as measured against a basket of six other currencies. This without the context of the dollar's swoon in much of the '00s, or that a less-expensive dollar is good for U.S. exports. And the dreaded debt! Anything Bernanke says is sure to be politicized, further dragging a supposedly independent central bank deeper into the nasty divide of American political battles.
The press conference won't answer the question of whether QE2 "worked." Only history will do that. It certainly stopped the threat of deflation, which was the Fed's chief concern from the Great Recession (and the mistake made by the early-1930s Federal Reserve which worsened the Great Depression). It pumped up the stock market and arguably became hot money that is sparking inflation abroad. Did it help Main Street, much less the millions still employed? No. But that's beyond the ability of the central bank.
Today's Econ Haiku:
Welcome Michael Young
Will you be around awhile?
You're kind of, well, old
May 25 - 9:50 AM Vote: The big event this summer | Jon Talton
May 24 - 9:20 AM Taking stock of Amazon.com
May 23 - 10:44 AM Is Dow 13,000 in our rearview mirrors?
May 22 - 10:30 AM Peak Fool: Facebook and JPMorgan
May 14 - 9:00 AM Gone for the week


- Madrona dad killed by a bullet as he drove through Central Area
- Matt Flynn has good day in Seahawks' 3-way QB competition
- Brandon League looks out of his own for Mariners
- Facebook messages trigger melee at Whitman Middle School
- Why dealing for Kellen Winslow makes sense for Seahawks | Steve Kelley
- Ex-boyfriend sought in death of Renton girl, 17
- Seattle police twice face hostile crowds at scenes of violent crime
- Komen controversy hurting Race for the Cure
- Juror alternates' actions have court on red alert
- Driver fatally shot in Central Area
- Opponents of gay-marriage law say they have enough signatures
891 - Mariners look to get back on winning track against Angels
477 - Madrona dad killed by stray bullet as he drove through Central Area
468 - Typical CEO made $9.6M last year, AP study finds
166 - Seattle police twice face hostile crowds at scenes of violence crime
134 - Fact check: Ad exaggerates Obama's debt
130 - A worthwhile conversation about charter schools
109 - Brandon League blows save in the ninth...again
82 - May questions, volume seven
72 - Brandon League looks out of his own for Mariners
66
- Madrona dad killed by a bullet as he drove through Central Area
- Driver fatally shot in Central Area
- Facebook messages trigger melee at Whitman Middle School
- Downtown building fetches $55M, thanks to Amazon effect
- Opponents of gay-marriage law get unexpected aid: from Muslims
- A second chance for idle electronics
- 'Tutankhamun' in Seattle: artifacts both dazzling and humble | Art review
- Get a sitter — please — for these 10 great date-night restaurants | All You Can Eat
- Komen controversy hurting Race for the Cure
- Rescued teen tells author how story helped him survive

- Cascadia Center
- Economic Policy Institute
- Enterprise Seattle
- Harvard Business Review
- Open Secrets: Center for Responsive Politics
- Sightline Institute
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics






News where, when and how you want it
All newsletters Privacy statement