Jon Talton
Analysis and commentary on economic news, trends and issues, with an emphasis on Seattle and the Northwest.
Blog Home |
E-mail Jon |
Subscribe | Twitter feed |
Read Jon's weekly columns
Comments (0)
E-mail article
Print
Share
Metro areas continued to suffer job losses, and why real estate won't ever be the same again
Posted by Jon Talton
Top of the News: Job No. 1 in the recovery continues to be, well, jobs. The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics has compiled metro employment numbers for November, with Kennewick-Pasco-Richland turning in the best jobs performance for the nation: 3,600 jobs added year-over-year.
At the bottom: El Centro, Calif. and Yuma, Ariz., with unemployment of 29.2 and 21.1 percent. Phoenix, capital of low-tax, light-regulation Arizona, lost more than 110,000 jobs, 6 percent of the workforce. Seventeen metros nationwide recorded unemployment of 15 percent or higher. And of course the actual rate is probably much higher, when accounting for discouraged workers and the underemployed.
Seattle unemployment rose to 8.8 percent (166,000 without work), vs. 5.7 percent in November 2008. Longview shot up to 12.9 percent. You can view the entire report here.
The Back Story: The latest tea leaf on real estate is the fall of pending house sales in November, down 16 percent compared with October. Americans still can't comprehend the sea change that has happened since the bubble burst. The real-estate economy of the early- and mid-2000s simply isn't coming back.
Prolonged unemployment is only part of the reason. There's also huge debt, overbuilding, changing buyer tastes. Oh, and every time oil prices keep increasing despite American economic weakness, it is a reminder that further sprawl will be self-defeating -- not that we won't try.
The blog Financial Armageddon has a fascinating report on the crushing uncertainty facing real estate, even among the biggest players. What are they thinking? "Real estate values are down generally 40 percent and there is a huge need for value reset to occur."; "There are still 2-3 million too many houses in the U.S."; "This time is really very different than any recession in the past."; and "The U.S. is no longer the world economic leader and will not lead the world out of this mess."
It's a good must-read for Tuesday.
Today's Econ Haiku:
Kraft wants Cadbury
But Buffett says he won't bite
Shareholders get chewed
Feb 9 - 9:40 AM Less than meets the eye in mortgage settlement
Feb 8 - 3:22 PM Boiling point at the port
Feb 7 - 9:45 AM Chrysler, Dirty Harry and the bailout
Feb 6 - 9:56 AM Inside the jobs report
Feb 3 - 10:13 AM Vote: Should corporations pay more taxes?


- Agency set to investigate handling of 911 call about Josh Powell
- Proposal to link Market, aquarium may be too ambitious for Seattle
- Chilling 911 tapes reveal pleas for help to go to Josh Powell home
- UW's Shawn Kemp Jr. makes own way despite familiar name, number | Steve Kelley
- State Medicaid program to stop paying for unneeded ER visits
- NBA's David Stern open to league returning to Seattle
- Lakewood cop accused of embezzling $150K meant for slain officers' families
- Prosecutor: Powell's final act ends doubt he killed wife
- Was idea of court-ordered test too much for Josh Powell?
- 3 big health insurers stockpile $2.4 billion as rates keep rising
- Gay-marriage bill passes House, awaits Gregoire's signature
426 - Historic day for gay marriage as another fight looming
343 - Sheriff's office unhappy with 911 dispatcher in caseworker's call
282 - 3 big health insurers stockpile $2.4 billion as rates keep rising
233 - Source: NY, California to sign mortgage settlement
195 - Pac-12 picks ... including the UW game
140 - Lakewood cop accused of taking donations for slain officers' families
108 - Department of Justice owes the Seattle Police Department an apology
85 - Thursday morning links --- and a video!!!
65 - Oregon live game thread
64
- State Medicaid program to stop paying for unneeded ER visits
- 3 big health insurers stockpile $2.4 billion as rates keep rising
- Here it is: The secret to stir-fried chicken | Taste
- Local aerospace suppliers say they feel squeezed by Boeing
- Dicks channeled federal money to Puget Sound project his son ran
- 'Gauguin and Polynesia': dazzling mix-and-match | Art review
- Buttoned Up: Nine immutable laws of time management
- Happy Hour: French-accented charm at Gainsbourg
- One man's audacious pursuit of sailing history
- Gay-marriage bill passes House, awaits Gregoire's signature


