Jon Talton
Analysis and commentary on economic news, trends and issues, with an emphasis on Seattle and the Northwest.
Blog Home |
E-mail Jon |
Subscribe | Twitter feed |
Read Jon's weekly columns
Comments (0)
E-mail article
Print
Share
Re Social Security and Medicare: Take a deep breath
Posted by Jon Talton
Top of the News: Yesterday's report that Social Security will "run out of money" in 2037 and Medicare will "be broke" in 2017, earlier than expected, gave rise to much media hysteria. This will also be a political Rorscach test, with conservatives and liberals drawing their own conclusions.
Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich, who was a trustee of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, has a sensible, calm bit of context on these periodic alarms. The big problem is Medicare, not Social Security.
The entitlement programs, amid a rising federal deficit and a struggling economy, do raise important questions. But can we address them politically and as a society? For example, Defense spending by some measures has exceeded Cold War highs. Yet nobody is talking about cutting it or pulling back on our global commitments.
Nobody paying attention would think privatizing Social Security is a good option. The "let 'em starve if they didn't take care of themselves!" argument plays well on the screamer fringe (WHERE THEY WRITE COMMENTS IN CAPITAL LETTERS), but not in real life.
The delicate balance of a mixed economy that created the largest middle class in history is badly broken. The good jobs and pensions of my parents' generation are largely gone or going. In many cases, they have been replaced by lesser opportunities, wages and retirement options.
Also, a tech-driven, global economy creates a wide gulf in incomes and the reward for skills. All this puts huge pressure on Social Security. At the same time, the richest investors and companies avoid taxes and have been able to make money dealing in money rather than in actually employing people to produce things.
As for Medicare and health costs, the problem is a consensus by policymakers, including President Obama and Democrats, to maintain a for-profit healthcare industry. Single-payer advocates have been barred from participating in Senate hearings. Medicare's administrative costs are quite low. But it works in a private system that must deliver high profit margins. The U.S. remains the only advanced nation without a national healthcare system, and pays much more -- 18 percent of GDP -- than its peers and competitors.
There's no free lunch. The trustees' report should be a call to action. But what?
Midweek Bits: A fascinating story today in the New York Times about 735 cargo ships sitting empty off Singapore, a result in the collapse of trade between Asia and America.
That they are sitting there, near the factories of Asia, is testimony to how little America now produces in goods to sell to the world. (U.S. exports fell 2 percent in March; imports fell 1 percent).
-- We're "consumers," hardly a flattering term for a nation that depends on citizens. And with maxed out credit cards, deflated 401(k)s and job losses, we may never be able to revive the "debt for stuff" business model that drove much trade over the past decade. More bad news on that front with today's bleak retail report.
Meanwhile, I have watched for weeks as the city of Seattle has torn up perfectly good Fourth Avenue through Belltown to put down a concrete street. The retailers are suffering badly. Good thing we don't depend on this city department for snow removal. Oh, wait...
--Calculated Risk has an instructive look at the relationship between the savings rate and personal consumption expenditures. Americans are saving more, finally. Does that mean that personal spending will inevitably trend down. If history is a guide: yes.
Today's Econ Haiku:
Intel's record fine
Shows anti-trust in action
Chip, meet the shoulder
Copyright © 2009 The Seattle Times Company
Feb 9 - 9:40 AM Less than meets the eye in mortgage settlement
Feb 8 - 3:22 PM Boiling point at the port
Feb 7 - 9:45 AM Chrysler, Dirty Harry and the bailout
Feb 6 - 9:56 AM Inside the jobs report
Feb 3 - 10:13 AM Vote: Should corporations pay more taxes?


- Lakewood cop accused of embezzling $150K meant for slain officers' families
- 3 big health insurers stockpile $2.4 billion as rates keep rising
- Agency set to investigate handling of 911 call about Josh Powell
- Quick decisions: How Washington hired its new football staff
- Historic day for gay marriage as another fight looms
- Justin Wilcox's versatile defensive style is the right fit for Huskies | Jerry Brewer
- It's Terrence Time: Enigmatic Ross leads Huskies
- Social worker recounts minutes before Powell fire
- $25B settlement reached over foreclosure abuses
- Club promoter convicted in brutal 2010 murder of Des Moines prostitute
- Gay-marriage bill passes House, awaits Gregoire's signature
434 - Historic day for gay marriage as another fight looming
346 - Sheriff's office unhappy with 911 dispatcher in caseworker's call
282 - 3 big health insurers stockpile $2.4 billion as rates keep rising
235 - Source: NY, California to sign mortgage settlement
207 - Oregon live game thread
152 - Pac-12 picks ... including the UW game
140 - Lakewood cop accused of taking donations for slain officers' families
114 - Department of Justice owes the Seattle Police Department an apology
88 - Thursday morning links --- and a video!!!
72
- 3 big health insurers stockpile $2.4 billion as rates keep rising
- State Medicaid program to stop paying for unneeded ER visits
- One man's audacious pursuit of sailing history
- Darren Berg gets 18-year sentence for Ponzi scheme
- $25B settlement reached over foreclosure abuses
- A wandering gene's destructive path | Book review
- 'Gauguin and Polynesia': dazzling mix-and-match | Art review
- UW opening incubator facility for startups
- Controversial principal at Lowell Elementary takes job in Tacoma
- Lakewood cop accused of embezzling $150K meant for slain officers' families


