What kind of NBA team might Seattle lure, and what would it take to get it?

As distasteful as it may seem for many local basketball fans, Seattle officials can learn a lot from Clay Bennett as they attempt to lure an NBA team.

"If you're going to play this game and win, you must have commitments from three places: the private sector, the public sector and the NBA," said Marc Ganis, president of Sportscorp Ltd., a Chicago-based sports-industry consulting firm. "Oklahoma City had all three."

Now that the dust has settled from the surprising July 2 settlement between the city of Seattle and Bennett, which allowed him to pay $45 million and immediately move the team, local officials face the cold realization that securing another franchise is no slam dunk.

In fact, Seattle faces stiff competition from several cities, including Kansas City, Mo., Las Vegas and San Jose, Calif., all trying to land an NBA team for years. Fortunately for Seattle, each city has its flaws.

Without any pro sports team as its tenant, Kansas City opened the $276 million Sprint Center last October. The city's officials are on board, but they lack a prospective owner willing to spend hundreds of millions for an NBA franchise. They seem to be pinning their hopes on landing an expansion pro hockey team instead.

In Las Vegas, Mayor Oscar Goodman remains infatuated with the NBA. He calmed the fears of league owners about the city's close connection to legalized gambling and hosted the All-Star Game in 2006. Goodman appears to have a strong relationship with commissioner David Stern, but plans for a $500 million arena have stalled and there's no visible ownership group in place.

In San Jose, billionaire Larry Ellison has the money and desire to own a team in Northern California. Forbes ranks him the 14th-richest person in the world, but Ellison doesn't have a viable arena and he hasn't made inroads with Stern and league owners.

Kevin Reichard, publisher of Arena Digest, believes Seattle moves to the top of the relocation list even though Stern insists on KeyArena renovations.

Seemingly, Seattle has a solid commitment from Seattle Center Investors, the group led by Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer and real estate developer Matt Griffin that's willing to purchase a franchise and help finance arena improvements.

"Seattle is No. 1 in my book," Reichard said. "The Vegas arena withered away to nothing. The mayor is working on a downtown arena, and that died. And there's been no real talks about those other cities. Right now, Seattle has a lot of public sentiment and buzz going for it."

Still, he says that the buzz can fade in a short time.

A few years ago, Louisville hotly pursued the NBA and made offers to three teams (the Rockets, Grizzlies and Hornets) before turning its attention to pro hockey. St. Louis and Anaheim also expressed a desire to land an expansion team, but neither city is believed to have any serious interest in the NBA anymore.

"I'd like to think we're going to get the next team," said Brian Robinson, co-founder of the grass-roots Save Our Sonics organization. "I've seen how it is, and it's a business. We have to put a package together that includes a renovated KeyArena.

"And our ace in the hole is Steve Ballmer. I think he can get his way in the NBA club. We have a building. We have a 41-year history and a proven track record of selling tickets."

Since the city settled with Bennett, Robinson and his group have focused on helping Mayor Greg Nickels secure funding for a proposed $300 million KeyArena renovation.

The plan, in which the city of Seattle would commit $75 million and another $150 million would come from the private sector, needs approval from the state Legislature to cover the remaining $75 million.

"We all would prefer an expansion team because we don't want to be a part of what happened to us, but in all likelihood, if we get a team it's going to be another relocation-type of a situation," Robinson said.

Teams most likely to move are the New Orleans Hornets, Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings.

"New Orleans moved once, and their lease is contingent on attendance and economic factors," Reichard said. "Sacramento has always been the team mentioned to move, and they've been fighting for a new arena for close to 10 years now. Memphis is already struggling with attendance after a few years."

Speculation also continues to swirl around the Charlotte Bobcats, Milwaukee Bucks and Minnesota Timberwolves about the long-term plans in their respective cities. And while it's highly unlikely the Atlanta Hawks, Los Angeles Clippers or Portland Trail Blazers are on the move, those teams are often mentioned as candidates because of the rocky relationship between the owners and the cities.

"There are only 30 NBA teams and about eight or nine cities without teams who clamor for them," said Dean Baim, an economics professor at Pepperdine and an expert on professional sports stadium financing.

A simple case of supply and demand.

"You're not going to get a consensus, but I believe everybody is in agreement that we're looking at a couple of years at the earliest before the league takes a hard look at Seattle again," added Ganis from Chicago. "If this process has taught us anything, it's the existence of a pecking order among these cities. Oklahoma City was next in line."

Still mourning its loss, Seattle now has to push its way to the front of that same line.

Percy Allen: 206-464-2278 or pallen@seattletimes.com