County not ready for bird flu, but planning under way

Should a flu pandemic reach Snohomish County, officials here are unprepared to handle it.

That's what county leaders said last week during a gathering of top law-enforcement, health, education and business representatives.

About 100 people gathered in Everett to kick off a five-month planning period on how best to handle a flu pandemic that many health leaders, including the Snohomish Health District's medical officer, believe is inevitable.

"It's certainly going to happen and probably will kill millions of people worldwide," said Dr. Ward Hinds. "Our planning to date is inadequate."

Worldwide, health officials are watching flu virus H5N1, commonly known as the bird flu, with worries that it has the best chance of mutating into a form easily passed from person to person. Though cases among humans have been limited mostly to people living in Asian countries, it has had a high mortality rate, Hinds told the gathering.

According to the World Health Organization, about 200 people have been infected to date with H5N1, and more than 120 have died.

If an outbreak did occur, health analysts predict more than 90 million people in the United States could become ill, with as many as 1.9 million deaths. In Snohomish County, that could translate to as many as 4,500 deaths.

Questions that county leaders want to answer include where to get vaccine if it is available, who would be vaccinated or get other flu medications, and who would make those decisions.

While county health leaders will look closely for direction from state and federal health officials, the decision to declare a state of emergency in Snohomish County falls ultimately to the county executive. Executive Aaron Reardon told those at last week's meeting that preparation time was running short.

"I recognize that time is not on our side," he said, adding that a plan to minimize social disruption and maximize law and order was most necessary.

A flu pandemic could seriously strain already-busy health centers, close businesses due to sick workers, cause school and public-meeting places to shut down, and affect governmental services such as waste pickup.

Separate work groups made up of those at last week's meeting will develop plans for each area, including how best to communicate news of flu impacts to the public.

Snohomish County will get its first chance June 19 to test what still needs to be done. Local officials then will act out a pandemic scenario, running through the county's procedures. The state Department of Health is using the mockups to gauge how prepared local health agencies are.

"It will be a good base line for us," said Nancy Furness, a nurse in the Snohomish Health District's communicable-disease department. "But it will come with very minimal planning."

Hinds said the county's goal is to have a thorough plan ready by Nov. 1.

Christopher Schwarzen: 425-783-0577 or cschwarzen@seattletimes.com