2009 was a year many retailers would like to forget; 2010 might not be much better

2009 saw the demise of countless jewelry stores, the Joe's Sports chain, and Eddie Bauer's run as a publicly held company. Overall, it's been a year many retailers would like to forget.

Although the worst of the Great Disruption apparently is over, 2010 is not likely to be a whole lot better. Bellevue retail analyst Patty Edwards, founder of investment-management firm Storehouse Partners, compares today's American consumer to a hospital patient.

"The patient is out of I.C.U. and has stabilized, but the patient is not out of the hospital and certainly is not ready to run a marathon," Edwards says.

We'll be ending our Holiday Wrap blog after the New Year's weekend, but our coverage of the local retail scene lives on in the Times' daily Business section and Friday Retail Report.

We leave you with these thoughts from Edwards on what to expect from the world of retail in 2010:

1. More major retailers offer customer loyalty cards, not unlike those at grocery stores, in lieu of easy credit. One example is Nordstrom's MOD Card, which debits your bank account for purchases, but allows you to collect reward points.

2. Wal-Mart continues its push for Internet shoppers with more conveniences, possibly something beyond the buy-online, pick-up in-store option, and more product depth.

3. Layaway makes an even bigger comeback next holiday season as middle-class shoppers continue to struggle.

4. Fashion stays safe through the first half of 2010 amid retailers' reluctance to stock up on anything even slightly risky. A lack of fashion newness, coupled with really slim inventories, could make shoppers even less likely to splurge than they already are.

5. Self-help rules in large deparment stores already known for not-so-great customer service.

And finally, Edwards predicts retail winners in the coming year:

--Auto parts stores: People fix their own cars.

--Beer: Joe Six Pack lives whether he works or not.

--Home goods: People spend more time at home.

--Electronic book readers: Expect Apple to add e-books to the iTunes store; As e-readers gain popularity, bookstores struggle.

--Crafts: People look for inexpensive ways to entertain themselves and make, rather than buy, gifts.