Cash becomes king for NFL's top rookies

There is no place for value shoppers at the top of the NFL draft.

The top 10 picks in last year's draft signed contracts that guaranteed an average of $18.7 million — a launching point for negotiations for prime picks in this weekend's draft and the cause of much anxiety by team executives.

Says Indianapolis Colts president Bill Polian of rookie deals, "They are rising at a rate that's well above the level of inflation."

Rookie pacts are also lapping the pace of the NFL's rising salary cap.

The six-year, $61 million contract that Oakland Raiders quarterback JaMarcus Russell received as the No. 1 pick overall last year contained $29 million in guarantees — a 76.7 percent increase from the $16.4 million in guaranteed money that Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer received as the top pick in 2003.

The average guarantee for the 32 first-round picks last year ($10.86 million) was up 67.4 percent from 2003 ($6.482 million).

During that same span, the league's salary cap increased 45.3 percent, from $75 million in 2003 to $109 million last year. The cap is $116 million for 2008.

The slices committed to unproven rookies is among issues the league — which generates more than $7 billion in annual revenue — will likely address as it seeks to revise its collective bargaining agreement with the players union.

"Put the guaranteed money aside," says Polian. "The level of risk is 50 percent. So if a player is paid $5 or $5 million, historically, you're still going to miss on 50 percent of those guys. So that's the issue. Those are the facts. So, let's go from there and try to implement a system that makes sense."

Escalating rookie contracts also affect trade talks, with teams reluctant to deal for higher picks. In the last five drafts, seven top-10 picks have been exchanged while more than half of the 50 selections among the bottom 10 picks of the first round (26) were swapped.

"I don't know about the top 10, but it's harder to trade into the top five," says New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick. "Any trade at that level, it comes down to a specific player. You're not trading for pick number three or four, you're trading for Player X and you're willing to pay whatever that player is going to get."

Buyers have reason to fear sticker shock. The draft's history is littered with high-round busts contrasted by solid "value" picks.

Take 2005. Top-10 picks Alex Smith, Cedric Benson, Pacman Jones, Troy Williamson and Mike Williams were guaranteed a collective $72.93 million, according to Athletes First agent Jeff Kessler. For a variety of reasons, none has lived up to their draft status. That same first round produced Shawne Merriman, DeMarcus Ware and Logan Mankins — none of whom were top-10 picks but are now Pro Bowl-credentialed.

"You always go into the draft," New York Giants GM Jerry Reese says, "hoping you can get more right than you get wrong."