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The 2016 vote? It wasn't even close
Posted by Ron Judd
Here are the totals from Copenhagen:
First Round:
Madrid 28
Rio 26
Tokyo 22
Chicago 18
Second Round:
Rio 46
Madrid 29
Tokyo 20
Third Round:
Rio 66
Madrid 32
Analysis: Obviously Madrid, with a virtual deathbed plea from former IOC boss Juan Antonio Samaranch, had a bloc of about 30 votes throughout. In the first round, where a majority is rarely achieved by one city, voters often pick a city for political reasons, to say, 'hey, we voted for you,' saving their true choice for later rounds. But Chicago didn't even get much of that charity. The Windy City's 18 in the first round is a total face-slap. Not even close. They got outpolled by four votes by Tokyo, which no one gave a snowball's chance in hell at winning this thing? Amazing.
You have to figure the Obamas and Oprah were worth at least a handful of votes. Without them, would Chicago have even broken into double digits?
In the end, almost all the Tokyo votes from the second round swung Rio's way in the third.
Well, as they say in Seattle, that's boat racin'.
It's exciting news for Rio, and all of South America, to be sure. And it'll be fascinating to watch the Olympic movement unleashed on a previously untouched continent.
Back here at home, expect a couple day's worth of scapegoating to begin, starting with Obama and going all the way down to trivialities such as the videos and overarching themes -- or lack thereof -- in Chicago's final presentation. But let's be honest: Deeper political factors are in play here. The final presentations, in this case, didn't lose the bid for Chicago.
Note: Yes, we see that the votes add up to different totals in different rounds. Likely because of late arrivals, abstentions, etc. Also the IOC members from cities under consideration are barred from voting while their country is in the running, but are freed to vote in later rounds.
Additional postmortem: Chicago 2016's bid cost the city and supporters close to $50 million.
UPDATE - 4:02 AM
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