Mortgage delinquencies expected to keep rising

NEW YORK — The rate at which people are falling behind on their mortgage payments went up for the ninth straight quarter in the first three months of 2009, and is expected to keep rising through the end of the year, according to credit reporting agency TransUnion.

Borrowers who were 60 days or more behind on their mortgage payments rose to 5.22 percent for the first three months of the year, TransUnion said. That's 62 percent higher than the 3.23 percent delinquency rate for the first quarter of 2008.

The TransUnion numbers show a smaller percentage of people behind on their payments than recently released data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, which said 12 percent of mortgage holders were past due in the first quarter.

TransUnion tracks delinquencies based on two skipped payments because that's a strong predictor of foreclosure, said Keith Carson, a senior consultant in TransUnion's financial services group.

"The reality is if you send in your mortgage payment and it's four days late, that's past due," he said. "The 60-day number we feel is more significant.

"Coming up with two house payments at once is pretty difficult for most families," Carson said.

Nevada, Florida, Arizona and California continue to be the hardest-hit states, while North Dakota and South Dakota, Alaska and Wyoming remain the states with the lowest delinquency rates.

If there is any positive news coming out of TransUnion data for the first quarter, Carson said it's that the rate of increase for mortgage delinquencies is slowing. Combined with a big jump in consumer confidence last month, there are some signs things are improving.

However, he said if unemployment continues to rise, another wave of mortgage problems could follow.

TransUnion currently predicts that about 7 percent of mortgages will be at least two months behind payments by the end of the year.

While delinquencies rose in the first quarter, so did the average amount of mortgage debt per borrower, Trans-

Union data showed. The average reached $195,500, up about 2 percent from $191,917 last year. That may reflect people taking advantage of the depressed market to upgrade to larger homes, he said, along with seasonal shifts.

TransUnion delinquency data is culled from its database of 27 million consumer records.