Planners predict a more-urbanized future

SPOKANE — Americans are returning to the nation's downtowns, reversing a century of migration to the suburbs and challenging planners who grew up in an automobile-dominated society, prominent planner and author Christopher Leinberger said.

Speaking recently to a regional conference of planners at the Davenport Hotel in downtown Spokane, Leinberger said walkable urban spaces became all but "illegal" in the post-World War II era, but shrinking households, higher transportation costs and the desire for more amenities are bringing people back into cities.

Just watch television, he said.

The popular shows of the 1950s and '60s were set in the suburbs, Leinberger said, with the move in 1957 of "I Love Lucy" from Manhattan to Connecticut underscoring the trend. In the 1980s and '90s, "Friends," "Seinfeld" and other shows nestled their characters downtown.

He said real-estate values reflect the change.

Using Denver as an example, Leinberger said a home in a gated golf community 20 miles outside the city sells for about $195 per square foot. Downtown, the price is $550.

"That's the market speaking," he said.

The shift has transformed former slums in Washington, D.C., and even Detroit, said Leinberger, who predicted the slums of the future will be found in the suburbs.

"The future isn't really going to be about the car," he said.

In fact, said Leinberger, eliminating a car would go a long way toward making mortgages on urban condos or town houses more affordable.

AAA calculates the annual cost of operating a Toyota Camry driven 15,000 miles a year at $7,800, he said, a sum that by itself could support a $150,000 mortgage.

Leinberger said the problem for planners is finding or creating enough land area within downtowns to keep housing affordable.

"That's your job, to provide more supply," Leinberger said, adding that the payoff would be an "upward spiral" of housing values.