Originally published Saturday, September 6, 2008 at 12:00 AM
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Home improvement in U.S. remains in slump
A new Harvard study suggests that home-improvement activity will continue to decline nationally in early 2009.
The Philadelphia Inquirer
There were predictions as recently as last autumn that the slowdown in homebuying and homebuilding would benefit the remodeling industry.
So far, that hasn't happened. The latest word is that it probably won't.
"The slumping economy and struggling housing sector continues to drag down spending on home improvements," said Nicolas Retsinas, director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University. "Households are reluctant to undertake major improvements in the context of falling prices."
The center's most recent Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity, released last month, suggests that homeowner-improvement activity will continue to decline, falling by an annual rate of 11.1 percent by the first quarter of 2009.
In a related report, the American Institute of Architects reported that the index it uses to measure business levels among its members remained in the negative category in June.
"Given that inquiries for new project work have not seen much improvement, it's likely we are several months away from a turnaround," said the institute's chief economist, Kermit Baker.
What do the numbers mean? That most homeowners are concerned they won't recover the costs of major improvements when they sell their houses, so they are delaying projects or abandoning them.
Yet billions still are being spent on remodeling, meaning that some work is being done.
My plumber was over a few weeks back, changing the tank fittings in our downstairs toilet, so I asked the obvious question.
"I'm still very busy, but things are slower," he said.
There are few new and expensive projects appearing, he said, but lower-cost repairs and maintenance issues are mostly what's being tackled, whether by professionals or do-it-yourselfers.
For example, I was spending money to keep a perfectly good toilet operating for another few years. It was a job I once might have done myself, but now it's easier and faster to hire a pro instead.
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In May and June, most Americans received a tax rebate as an economic stimulus.
Ours was small, but it helped pay for a new washer and dryer, which were long overdue and will likely cut our water and energy use immediately.
The toilet repair modernized the flushing mechanism. It, too, will cut our water use, and thus pay for itself over time.
Little tweaks are beginning to mean more in dealing with the rising cost of just about everything.
When I redid our front porch floor recently, I also caulked the windowsills and filled the gap under the threshold with foam insulation.
I replaced the screening on the storm-door insert and changed the screws on the door's hinges so it would close more tightly, and by itself.
I also repaired a screen in an upstairs bedroom window that had been chewed in a couple of places by a squirrel. Matching screen patches that require no tools to install did the trick.
I used the foam insulation to seal the gaps in the floor and ceiling of our front closet around the soil stack, and insulated the ceiling. I noticed the closet and the adjacent rooms were cooler, so a very small and inexpensive effort (I repainted the closet while I was at it) had some impact.
One benefit of the housing slowdown is that some materials — fiberglass insulation, drywall and some grades of lumber — are less expensive than they were a year or two ago. So if you have places to tighten up, spaces to finish or a shelf to build, now's the time.
I already had much of the lumber, so I'm working on a movable bookcase that hides a storage area behind a kneewall I built for an electric fireplace in front of our bed.
Two other bookcases will line the walls of the dormer, which is tall enough to use as a sit-down reading area.
Little things do add up, and they don't have to cost a fortune.
Copyright © 2008 The Seattle Times Company
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