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Signature gatherers for anti-tunnel Initiative 101 seem to be more active this past week, in their red shirts at grocery stores and farmers markets. Organizer Elizabeth Campbell says about 5,000 people have signed, as of Monday.

What voters might not realize is that even if the measure attracts the required 20,629 valid signatures, it likely wouldn't appear on the Seattle ballot until May 2011 -- long after the state Department of Transportation plans to sign a construction deal in January for at least $1.1 billion, to build the underground route from Sodo to South Lake Union. The City Council intends to sign right-of-way and utility agreements in January.

So is Initiative 101 too late to matter?

Campbell says no. Final engineering and tunnel-machine assembly will require several months before ground could be broken at the south tunnel entry, she argues.

Second, she hopes voters agree that "the longer the economy stays this way, the greater the reason is not to do the tunnel." The Highway 99 tunnel is estimated at $2 billion, including design and contingency funds, while non-tunnel ramps, waterfront streets, and the Sodo highway segment push the figure to $3.1 billion -- not including a half-billion city dollars for utility relocation and a new sea wall nearby. Campbell prefers an elevated replacement; some I-101 backers would reinforce the 57-year-old highway to squeeze more years from it.

Tunnel backer Bob Donegan, president of Ivar's, said of Campbell: "If you look at her track record, she's not a very effective community organizer. As we ask around town, we're not seeing a lot of support." Campbell has run for mayor and tried two other anti-tunnel petitions before. She now chairs Seattle Citizens Against the Tunnel.

SCAT has until Feb. 1 to gather signatures. Then, the City Council has 45 days to enact the measure, or put I-101 to the voters, followed by several weeks' lead time for ballot printing.

If Campbell falters, Seattle tour-bus driver Dick Falkenbury, a former monorail campaign organizer, says he might try a "parallel" anti-tunnel petition drive. He's already registered with city Ethics and Elections as "Committee of the Grownups," reflecting his belief it's silly to spend $3 billion on a project that risks undermining some Pioneer Square buildings.

If the the anti-tunnel campaign succeeds, a court fight is virtually guaranteed. Governments could draw on a deep well of public funds and judicial deference. "You just fight it the best you can," says Campbell, a Magnolia resident.

The DOT could cite the Growth Management Act, for its authority to build highways, said Bryce Brown, a state attorney working on the project.

Strategically, Campbell concedes this much -- a January bid contract and right-of-way pacts would surely be played up by tunnel boosters in a spring campaign, to claim resistance is futile.

Ivar's is treating the tunnel as a done deal -- in a humorous ad that mentions you will someday buy clams at their deep eatery, inside the tunnel.