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September 3, 2010 at 4:53 PM

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State's chief economist: No good news to report

Posted by Andrew Garber

The state's chief economist, Arun Raha, gave lawmakers an update on the economy Friday and laid out nothing but dismal news. The bad times will continue.

"Economic activity has slowed to an agonizing crawl. May and June saw a pause in activity and July brought little relief. Job growth remains anemic ... housing is looking for a new bottom and despite some easing in credit conditions, small business continues to face a challenging credit environment. There is considerable drag in the economy and increased uncertainty," Raha said, reading from his report.

That's not all. "We have cut our 2011 employment growth forecasts roughly in half, from 2.7 percent to 1.3 percent on an annual average basis. We do not expect to reach our prerecession peak in overall employment until the second quarter of 2013."

Bottom line of all that: "I do not believe that we will fall back into recession, it will just continue to feel like one," he said.

In other words, we may not go into another recession technically, but only an economist could tell the difference.

Raha often wraps up his presentations with a joke, but instead ended his presentation saying: "I wish I had better news to give you, but I don't."

Raha will tell lawmakers on Sept. 16 what the revenue forecast will look like. Budget writers are privately preparing for a big drop in projected tax collections.

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