Mayor Mike McGinn is at risk of missing his campaign promise to ask Seattle voters to pay for a Ballard-downtown-West Seattle light rail project within his first two years of office.

Though he says he still supports the idea, a number of obstacles, including recession, have gotten in the way since he won the mayoral race last year.

The timing of a rail ballot measure is at risk of slipping, McGinn said, during a briefing Wednesday.

There doesn't seem to be much fervor on the City Council to seek a near-term vote on light rail, in a time when basic services are threatened by recession and budget cuts, according to Councilman Nick Licata. "I think it's been pushed back, and I don't see the public necessarily supporting it, once they know what the costs are," he said.

Councilman Tom Rasmussen, chairman of the transportation committee, is equally sour on trying a light rail tax anytime soon, even though he lives in West Seattle.

"We don't even have light rail to the U District yet, and to Roosevelt," he said, referring to Sound Transit lines due in the early 2020s. King County Metro's RapidRide bus service, due in 2012 for Ballard and West Seattle, is more productive for those neighborhoods in the near term, he said. He suspects that a westside rail study would sit on the sheIf for years.

Earlier this week, Rasmussen proposed a citywide transportation benefit district that could collect car-tab fees, property taxes, sales taxes or tolls for a variety of projects. Some of the taxes require a ballot measure.

One such fee - a voter-approved car tab fee of $100 per year - might be a plausible source to fund expanding light rail service into Seattle neighborhoods.

But first up may be a separate tax measure in fall 2011, suggested by the Seattle City Council, to pay for most of the planned sea wall replacement along Elliott Bay. McGinn wanted a property tax measure this year to do the same thing.

There could be problems gaining public support if a light-rail vote hits the ballot at the same time as a sea wall proposition, he acknowledged.

Also, the city lacks a new transit master plan to set priorities and examine modes of travel. "I think you have to do the study," McGinn said. Budget restrictions from the council have delayed the plan update, he said -- the old version is out of date and still includes a 14-mile monorail.

"I personally believe connecting the west side neighborhoods to light rail is in the best long-term interest of the city," McGinn said. But he also said, "You've got to go ultimately where the facts lead you."

Other technologies, including high-frequency "bus rapid transit" routes, or streetcars, or electric trolley buses, have been suggested over the years.

Licata suggests reliable bus service should be the priority, not what he calls "heavy rail" (a two car light-rail train weighs 100 tons, but is called "light' because it's powered by overhead electric wires, and because it's shorter than an intercity commuter train).

"It's critical we keep our eye on the ball -- we want 18-hour service at 15-minute intervals, seven days a week," Licata said.

From 2003 to 2005, a voter-created agency spent $124 million to design and promote the 14-mile Green Line monorail on the west side of the city, but it was never built, due to funding shortages and political resistance.

Sound Transit's current 15-year plan includes extensions from Husky Stadium north to Northgate and Lynnwood, but not a west line. The transit board intends to hold another public vote for taxes and extensions, possibly in 2016.

In the campaign against Joe Mallahan last year, McGinn said Seattle shouldn't wait that long to add more rail transit.

Seattle's South Lake Union Streetcar cost around $40 million a mile, while Sound Transit's existing light rail cost about $160 million per mile for a mix of elevated, tunnel, and surface corridor, including trains and four landmark stations. McGinn has suggested something in-between, similar in scale and cost to Portland's MAX routes. Any new rail bridge at Ballard or West Seattle would require well over $100 million each.

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from Mike Lindblom, Times transportation reporter, mlindblom@seattletimes.com