Go to the politics section for more local and national politics coverage.
Politics Northwest
Comments (0)
E-mail article
Print
Share
Which poll will win Seattle mayor's race?
Posted by Jim Brunner
One side question to be answered by Seattle mayoral election results: which of the two major public polls was more reliable?
In this corner, we have the Survey USA poll run by KING-TV, which found the race a dead heat between Mike McGinn and Joe Mallahan. (That poll was released yesterday.) The Survey USA poll is done by automated software.
And in this corner, we have The Washington Poll, run by University of Washington political scientists. That poll, released last week, claimed Mallahan was ahead, with 44 percent support to McGinn's 36 percent. The poll uses live interviewers.
The McGinn camp criticized The Washington Poll when it came out last week, arguing the same poll had underestimated McGinn's strength before the August primary.
Matt Barreto, the UW political science professor who runs the poll, sent me an e-mail earlier today with his own critique of the Survey USA poll.
While Barreto said it could well be that later voters are breaking for McGinn, he said the Survey USA poll looks to be counting on too many young voters.
The poll has 25 percent of its responses coming from registered voters between 18 and 34. However, based on past experience, that age bracket will make up only 13 percent of the vote. Since younger voters favor McGinn, the poll may be overestimating his support.
"It could also very well be that McGinn has a huge turnout machine that will turn out the 18- to 34-year-old vote, in which case he surges, but this would be a first in an off-year election; younger voters tend to skip these local contests," Barreto said.
Feb 8 - 1:52 PM Vancouver activist asks court to toss state redistricting plan
Feb 7 - 1:36 PM Teacher evaluation bills to be ressurected in Senate committee
Feb 6 - 3:35 PM Senate Ways and Means chairman floats tax proposals
Feb 6 - 3:30 PM Rethinking the Discover Pass in Olympia


- Agency set to investigate handling of 911 call about Josh Powell
- Proposal to link Market, aquarium may be too ambitious for Seattle
- Chilling 911 tapes reveal pleas for help to go to Josh Powell home
- UW's Shawn Kemp Jr. makes own way despite familiar name, number | Steve Kelley
- State Medicaid program to stop paying for unneeded ER visits
- NBA's David Stern open to league returning to Seattle
- Lakewood cop accused of embezzling $150K meant for slain officers' families
- Prosecutor: Powell's final act ends doubt he killed wife
- Was idea of court-ordered test too much for Josh Powell?
- 3 big health insurers stockpile $2.4 billion as rates keep rising
- Gay-marriage bill passes House, awaits Gregoire's signature
423 - Historic day for gay marriage as another fight looming
343 - Sheriff's office unhappy with 911 dispatcher in caseworker's call
282 - 3 big health insurers stockpile $2.4 billion as rates keep rising
233 - Source: NY, California to sign mortgage settlement
195 - Pac-12 picks ... including the UW game
140 - Lakewood cop accused of taking donations for slain officers' families
108 - Department of Justice owes the Seattle Police Department an apology
84 - Thursday morning links --- and a video!!!
65 - Scouting report: Oregon
57
- State Medicaid program to stop paying for unneeded ER visits
- 3 big health insurers stockpile $2.4 billion as rates keep rising
- Here it is: The secret to stir-fried chicken | Taste
- Local aerospace suppliers say they feel squeezed by Boeing
- Dicks channeled federal money to Puget Sound project his son ran
- 'Gauguin and Polynesia': dazzling mix-and-match | Art review
- Buttoned Up: Nine immutable laws of time management
- Happy Hour: French-accented charm at Gainsbourg
- One man's audacious pursuit of sailing history
- Gay-marriage bill passes House, awaits Gregoire's signature

Jim Brunner
Covers politics.
Keith Ervin
Covers the Eastside.
Andrew Garber
Covers politics and state government from Olympia.
Emily Heffter
Covers local government.
Mike Lindblom
Covers transportation.
Kyung Song
Covers politics and regional issues from Washington, D.C.
Lynn Thompson
Covers Seattle City Hall.
Bob Young
Covers King County and urban affairs.
