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November 3, 2009 at 7:33 PM

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Which poll will win Seattle mayor's race?

Posted by Jim Brunner

One side question to be answered by Seattle mayoral election results: which of the two major public polls was more reliable?

In this corner, we have the Survey USA poll run by KING-TV, which found the race a dead heat between Mike McGinn and Joe Mallahan. (That poll was released yesterday.) The Survey USA poll is done by automated software.

And in this corner, we have The Washington Poll, run by University of Washington political scientists. That poll, released last week, claimed Mallahan was ahead, with 44 percent support to McGinn's 36 percent. The poll uses live interviewers.

The McGinn camp criticized The Washington Poll when it came out last week, arguing the same poll had underestimated McGinn's strength before the August primary.

Matt Barreto, the UW political science professor who runs the poll, sent me an e-mail earlier today with his own critique of the Survey USA poll.

While Barreto said it could well be that later voters are breaking for McGinn, he said the Survey USA poll looks to be counting on too many young voters.

The poll has 25 percent of its responses coming from registered voters between 18 and 34. However, based on past experience, that age bracket will make up only 13 percent of the vote. Since younger voters favor McGinn, the poll may be overestimating his support.

"It could also very well be that McGinn has a huge turnout machine that will turn out the 18- to 34-year-old vote, in which case he surges, but this would be a first in an off-year election; younger voters tend to skip these local contests," Barreto said.

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Jim Brunner
Covers politics.

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