Political expert Chris Vance dismisses the notion, voiced by King County Elections, that Seattle-area voters will mail in a surge of ballots today, boosting the sluggish turnout that's been trending toward only 50 percent.

"I think turnout's going to be terrible. There's nothing on the ballot that excites them. They don't know who to vote for," he said Monday. The county still clings to its forecast of 56 percent turnout in the all-mail election.

In part because of campaign-spending limits, even the top-ticket candidates cannot buy enough ads to make an impression, argues Vance, a former state Republican Party chairman, King County councilman, and state legislator, now a public-affairs consultant.

Also, there are few issues that would motivate big special-interest donors in the county executive race between Dow Constantine and Susan Hutchison, he said. Vance wrote eloquently this summer in Crosscut about the county's waning influence. Generational land-use and light-rail decisions have now been decided, leaving jails, buses, sewers, and public health as the core duties.

"People like to say 'There's too much money in politics, I hate all those ads,' " he said. "The truth is, those ads are what inform people."

Money flowed into last year's governor's race, when more than $44 million was spent by incumbent Democrat Chris Gregoire, GOP challenger Dino Rossi, and independent groups lined up on either side. By comparison, county-executive candidate Constantine collected $1.1 million and Susan Hutchison $709,216, and after adding independent groups the total is still only $2.4 million. To buy ads on the mass-market TV and radio newscasts, Vance points out, a King County (or Seattle mayor) candidate has to pay rates based on the entire Western Washington market.

"There's not enough money to motivate voters who are casual voters. I hope all the reformers are happy," he said.