McGinn vote tally inches up in Seattle mayoral election

Seattle's mayoral race stayed too close to call Thursday, with Mike McGinn leading Joe Mallahan by just 515 votes out of more than 130,000 counted.

McGinn's lead inched up 53 votes in the latest tally of about 26,000 votes released Thursday afternoon.

The attorney and former Sierra Club leader led by 910 votes on Election Night over Mallahan, a cellphone executive who outspent him by more than 3-to-1. On Wednesday that slipped to 462 votes.

If the contest stays this tight, a recount will be required.

Speaking to reporters at his campaign headquarters in the Eastlake neighborhood, Mallahan said the latest results "could have been better."

"We're still quite optimistic, but obviously it was sort of break-even today," he said. As for a recount, he said, "My expectation, actually, particularly after these results, is that there will be a mandatory recount."

State law requires a machine recount if the candidates are separated by fewer than 2,000 votes and one-half of 1 percent of the total votes cast. A manual recount is required if the difference is less than 150 votes and less than one-quarter of 1 percent.

McGinn was spending time with family Thursday and unavailable for comment.

About 15 McGinn volunteers watched the latest results at a campaign office in Southeast Seattle, said Aaron Pickus, a volunteer campaign spokesman. "We edged up a bit. Just like everyone else we're waiting and watching for each day's update," Pickus said.

Both McGinn and Mallahan plan to attend a memorial service today at KeyArena for Seattle police Officer Timothy Brenton, who was fatally shot Saturday night.

To close the gap of 515 votes, Mallahan would have to get 50.31 percent of the estimated 84,000 ballots remaining to be counted, assuming the official projected turnout of 57 percent in Seattle holds true.

The likelihood of a recount should become clearer this afternoon, when King County Elections plans to release additional vote results from the all-mail election.

But if history is any guide, Seattle may not know the outcome of the race until next week.

In 2001, the last close mayoral race, the outcome wasn't clear until nine days after Election Day.

That's when then-City Attorney Mark Sidran finally conceded to Greg Nickels, then a Metropolitan King County Council member from West Seattle. That race was decided by 3,158 votes.

This election appears even more unpredictable than the 2001 race, said Michael Grossman, a Seattle political consultant who worked for Sidran that year.

"While they're both the same food group, they're not the same food," he said.

In addition to the switch to the all-mail election, Grossman noted that 2001 was different because both Sidran and Nickels were relatively well-known elected officials. That meant there were fewer undecided voters in the final days of the election.

This year, with Nickels ousted in the primary, voters were left with two virtually unknown candidates in McGinn and Mallahan. And they seemed to wait until the last minute to make up their minds. One poll shortly before Election Day showed 19 percent of likely voters still undecided.

A number of voters decided they didn't like either candidate. As of Thursday, 1,100 votes were cast for write-ins.

Staff reporter Justin Mayo contributed to this report.

Jim Brunner: 206-515-5628 or jbrunner@seattletimes.com

Emily Heffter: 206-464-8246 or eheffter@seattletimes.com