Local voters want change — but exactly how much?

Early on in this campaign season, it looked like voters were ready to revolt against the local political order.

Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels got tossed in the primary for a pair of political newcomers. Susan Hutchison, the former TV newscaster with strong Republican ties, looked to be in prime position to take the King County executive's office, held by Democrats since 1994. Even Seattle's city attorney drew a strong challenge unusual for that office.

For good measure, voters stuck Tim Eyman's latest tax-limiting plan, Initiative 1033, on the ballot — a measure that could sharply cut government services in coming years.

"This has to be one of the biggest change environments I can remember in local politics in the 25 or 30 years I have been involved or observing it," said Rollin Fatland, a lobbyist and former deputy county executive.

But will voters really go for a dramatic sweep, or more a gentle dusting of the shelf?

Political outsiders

Even with no incumbents, the top two local races in Tuesday's election have boiled down to establishment vs. insurgent contests.

In Seattle's mayoral race, Mike McGinn has emerged as the renegade, even though he's been involved in local politics far longer than rival Joe Mallahan.

A corporate lawyer who quit his job to create a progressive nonprofit, McGinn spent most of his underdog, volunteer-driven campaign vowing to fight the decision by the governor, Legislature and Seattle officials to drill a deep-bore tunnel to replace the Alaskan Way Viaduct. He wants no new highway through downtown and would push for increased transit instead of cars.

Late in the campaign, McGinn softened his anti-tunnel stance, saying he wouldn't necessarily block the project. But he has continued to argue it shouldn't go forward until there is certainty over who would pay for cost overruns.

McGinn has made other controversial proposals, such as a possible city takeover of public schools if they don't improve, and a push for Seattle-only light-rail expansion instead of waiting for Sound Transit.

In the county-executive race, Hutchison is the outsider, vowing to bring "fresh leadership," reopen union contracts and cut county expenses. While the executive race is officially nonpartisan, her campaign is backed by traditional Republican donors.

Although Hutchison's politics are nowhere close to McGinn's, like him she has irritated other local political officials by proposing to revisit issues that have long been decided.

She recently said light rail should run across the Highway 520 bridge instead of Interstate 90, as currently planned and approved by voters last year.

'Tentative revolt'

With recent polls showing Hutchison, McGinn and I-1033 all trailing, it is possible voters will shy away from dramatic change.

"I would call it a tentative revolt," said Christian Sinderman, a Seattle political consultant working for Hutchison's rival, County Council Chairman Dow Constantine. "The primary electorate came out with their pitchforks and then woke up after the primary and had a little bit of remorse over it."

Constantine certainly hopes so. While he's not an incumbent, his election would be a continuation of the string of Democratic County Council members ascending to the executive's office. Republicans haven't held the office since Tim Hill left in 1993.

Constantine has represented West Seattle and Vashon Island on the council for seven years and was a state legislator for six years before that.

He's run mainly on his experience and argues his Democratic values are more in line than Hutchison's with county voters.

Management focus

In the mayor's race, T-Mobile executive Mallahan has somewhat surprisingly assumed the role of the insider candidate.

Except for some Obama campaign-volunteer work last year, Mallahan was absent from local politics until he entered the mayor's race in May. He got through the primary on the strength of $230,000 of his own money and a relentless anti-Nickels message.

But since then, Mallahan has morphed into the safe pick for most of the city's business and labor establishment that had previously backed Nickels. Mallahan has boasted about his management background and argues the job of the next mayor is to deliver basic services and work to bring in big projects, like the tunnel, on time and within budget.

Mallahan's campaign is well-funded and staffed by paid consultants, in contrast to McGinn's volunteer operation.

Whether it's Mallahan or McGinn who takes office in January, Seattle's next mayor will be the most politically inexperienced since KING-TV commentator Charles Royer was elected to his first term in 1977.

"I'm worried about both of these guys," said Michael Richmond, a Beacon Hill neighborhood leader who joined a walking tour with Mallahan last week. "They're both good guys, but neither one of them has the kind of experience needed to run a city."

The mayor's office will face big decisions as the $4.2 billion tunnel project moves ahead — including a possible brawl with the state over who pays for any cost overruns. The details of how a new 520 bridge should connect with Seattle also await. And a new police chief must be hired.

Grim outlook for county exec

The next county executive will take office sooner — shortly after votes are certified later this month — and confront a government in financial crisis.

Right now the office is held by Kurt Triplett, who was appointed in May after Ron Sims left for a job in the Obama administration.

Declining revenues and rising wages and benefits have socked the county's budget, which faces projected shortfalls of $56 million next year, $54 million in 2011 and $88 million in 2012. The county is considering shedding responsibilities such as animal control and oversight of some urban parks.

An epic natural disaster also could loom if rain overwhelms the leaky Howard Hanson Dam and floods the Green River Valley.

If Hutchison wins, she'd likely face a hostile County Council dominated by Democrats, including Constantine, who didn't have to give up his seat to run for executive.

Given the gloomy economy and other problems, whoever ascends to the top local offices may face a public with little patience for mistakes.

"It's a very strange political year. Voters are confused and angry and bitter right now," said Chris Vance, former Republican Party state chairman and County Council member.

"The smartest politician of 2009 was [former County Executive] Ron Sims, because he got out of Dodge," Vance said.

Jim Brunner: 206-515-5628 or jbrunner@seattletimes.com