Mayor Greg Nickels: Not so popular ... but is he beatable?

At first glance, Mayor Greg Nickels ought to fit Seattle as comfortably as a fleece vest from REI.

The lifelong Democrat hopped on Barack Obama's bandwagon with an endorsement last February. He's led the push for Sound Transit's soon-to-open light-rail line longer than any other local politician. He's been talked up in national magazines as a leader on global warming.

All causes dear to the hearts of Seattle's liberal electorate. Yet as he seeks a third term, Nickels confronts a city seemingly itching to try someone else on for size.

Several polls in recent months have found the mayor's popularity in the dumps. A Survey USA poll for KING-TV, released April 6, found just 34 percent of 500 Seattle adults surveyed approved of Nickels' job performance, while 58 percent disapproved. Another recent poll had former City Councilmember Peter Steinbrueck thumping Nickels in a head-to-head matchup.

Despite all the discontent, it's not at all clear whether Nickels will face a formidable opposition campaign in the fall. Several potentially interesting candidates have backed away — most notably Steinbrueck, who announced Friday he'd won an urban-design fellowship at Harvard University.

That leaves Nickels facing rivals — environmental leader Michael McGinn, executive recruiter Norman Sigler and former NBA center James Donaldson — who have never before run for public office.

"It is sort of a little mystery, actually. If someone is so unpopular, why isn't there a crowd at the door banging to get into the race?" said Seattle City Councilmember Nick Licata. "He may have the unique ability of being able to win elections and be unlikeable."

Less-than-stellar rise

What exactly is Seattle's beef with hizzoner, anyway?

If you are looking for clues, start with this: He's never been exceedingly popular.

Nickels barely squeaked into office in 2001, the last man standing in a peculiar, three-way contest.

Mayor Paul Schell was ousted in the primary, becoming the first incumbent Seattle mayor since 1956 to lose a re-election bid.

For the general election, Nickels positioned himself as an agreeable, safe alternative to City Attorney Mark Sidran, whose "civility" crackdowns on panhandling and public drinking drew comparisons with New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

With support from most of Seattle's labor and Democratic organizations, Nickels beat out Sidran's business-backed campaign by a few thousand votes.

After winning, Nickels blew up his nice-guy image and stomped around City Hall to show who was boss. He fired Jim Diers, the popular director of the Department of Neighborhoods, warned city departments not to take directions from the City Council, and made sure all authority — and credit — flowed through his office.

Those moves solidified his power but alienated some supporters.

During more than seven years in office, Nickels has piled up his share of demerits: the city's response to the December snowstorm, a homeless encampment called "Nickelsville," the departure of the Sonics, no sure replacement for the Alaskan Way Viaduct eight years after it was supposedly rendered unsafe by an earthquake.

But the public anger is nowhere near as crisp as it was eight years ago, when the WTO and Mardi Gras riots doomed Schell.

Discontent lite

Even some of Nickels' critics say the grouchiness toward the mayor feels vague and impressionist, more about his perceived bullying style than any particular grievance.

"You won't find any one thing, nor has he made any big blunders, the snowstorm aside," said Steinbrueck. "In his two terms, the complaints are more over style and a disproportionate amount of attention to places like South Lake Union."

Susanna Williams, a Central District resident who works as a fundraiser for a Catholic school, started a Facebook group begging Steinbrueck to run for mayor. It had grown to about 900 members by last week — when Steinbrueck punctured the enthusiasm with his announcement that he was leaving town instead of running for mayor.

When asked why she wanted to replace Nickels, one of the first things Williams mentioned was her desire for "an effective light-rail system" — an issue Nickels has championed for two decades.

Williams said it's not so much that she disagrees with Nickels on any particular issue. It's more an impression that he isn't the sort of leader who inspires people.

"It's a change year. We're in a change mode. To re-elect Greg Nickels to a third term doesn't fit with that," she said.

John Wyble, a political consultant who worked on Nickels' 2001 campaign, said one of the mayor's main problems is that many voters associate him with big-money projects, some of which seem "stuck in a morass," like the $4 billion tunnel to replace the viaduct, the retooling of Mercer Street and a proposed expansion of KeyArena.

"There is a theme that goes on in the city that what city government does is these huge, mammoth projects, and people are not sure it should always be the focus," said Wyble.

Andrew Thibault of EMC research, Nickels' campaign polling firm, said the mayor's reputation has changed little since 2005, when he ran for a second term.

That year, Nickels faced similar criticisms over style and coziness with developers. There was chatter about low job-approval ratings. Some frustrated Democratic district organizations refused to endorse him. But in the end, Nickels faced no serious opposition and beat former UW professor Al Runte with 64 percent of the vote.

"I'm not saying that the same thing will happen this time, but as a broad indicator of Nickels' vote potential, his job rating just has not been very predictive," Thibault said.

That may explain why potentially higher-profile rivals, including Steinbrueck, developer Greg Smith and Councilmembers Licata, Sally Clark and Tim Burgess all have decided against a challenge.

Burgess said he actually agrees with most of Nickels' policies. "It would have come down to a campaign on personality and style. That would have been an exercise in vanity, and I wasn't interested in doing that," he said.

Focus groups uneasy

Although his advisers downplay his poll numbers, Nickels has clearly noticed he has a problem in some quarters of the city. His campaign organized focus groups earlier this year, targeting reliable voters who said they were leaning against voting for the mayor.

"What we found, not surprisingly, is that there is a general unease and dissatisfaction," said Thibault. "People see Seattle changing, they wonder how it is going to change, and that makes them nervous."

But when focus-group participants were asked what they wanted done in the city, "they talked about things the mayor is already doing" — like promoting transit-oriented development. Thibault said the participants warmed to Nickels when told the city was making progress on basic services like paving streets.

That's what the Nickels campaign, which has already raised $300,000, will spend the next several months reminding people.

And, of course, none of the early polls mean too much until Nickels' final opponent emerges.

"Sure there is all this upset right now. But you are firing somebody and hiring somebody else to be the new mayor. They have to be offering you something different and compelling," Thibault said.

Nickels said he knows angering people just goes with the job — it's why modern big-city mayors rarely go on to statewide office.

"It is a more intimate relationship with the people you serve than any other office," he said. "When I propose something on recycling, that affects people in their kitchens. It is very direct. And I love that about the job."

"But it also means over time you have to make decisions, or you don't get anything done. And every time you make those decisions, there are a significant number of people who take issue with that. There is a saying — Friends come and go, enemies accumulate."

Jim Brunner: 206-515-5628 or jbrunner@seattletimes.com