Is state so blue, McCain will write us off?

OLYMPIA — It's been 24 years since a Republican candidate for president came out on top in Washington state. Given our longtime blue-state status, what chance does John McCain have of beating Barack Obama here? For that matter, will he even try?

So far, the McCain campaign has sent mixed signals.

When McCain held a fundraiser in Bellevue — including a $31,000 per person "Victory Dinner" — none of the money raised that evening went to the Washington State Republican Party.

Instead, it was divided among the McCain campaign, the national GOP and the state parties in places that both sides view as key battlegrounds: Colorado, Minnesota, New Mexico and Wisconsin.

A "strategy brief" video on McCain's campaign Web site lists Washington as a "toss-up" state. But it does not mention Washington among the swing states where the campaign believes it has "really unique opportunities" to beat Obama.

State GOP Chairman Luke Esser said he thinks McCain could compete in Washington. But, he added, state Republicans first must prove "that we have our act together."

Prominent McCain supporters here sound less than sure about what role Washington will play in the national election.

"I think a lot of those decisions are still up in the air," said former Secretary of State Ralph Munro. "We have been told that Washington state is in play and they plan to spend time and money here. ... But I'm smart enough to know that could all change in five minutes."

With the general election still five months away, some political pundits list Washington among the handful of states that could be up for grabs. And both campaigns are making noise about trying to cut into the other side's traditional turf.

McCain might have a shot of doing that in Oregon, but not Washington, said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. And given the fact that McCain is likely to be heavily outspent by Obama, Sabato said he'd be surprised if the Republican makes any effort here.

Sabato said the way we elect presidents all but assures McCain will write off Washington. Under the Electoral College system, the candidate who wins a majority of votes in a particular state gets all of that state's electoral votes.

"If you lose by one vote or a million, you still get nothing," Sabato said "That's why candidates target so specifically. ... You have to have a reasonable chance of winning to justify spending some of your limited capital."

The last time a Republican won here was 1984, when Ronald Reagan handily defeated Democrat Walter Mondale. Since then, even Democrats who came up short nationally — Michael Dukakis, Al Gore and John Kerry — won the state.

And Washington politics is more Democrat-dominated than ever.

Democrats hold near-record majorities in the state Legislature and eight of the state's 11 seats in Congress. Republicans haven't elected a governor in nearly three decades.

"Obama won't have to spend any time in Washington," Sabato said. "It's his."

Even if neither candidate decides to do much campaigning in Washington, both will likely come here to raise money.

There are some things about McCain that could give him a boost here.

He has a reputation as a reformer and political maverick, characteristics that play well with this state's independent-minded voters. His support for free trade will likely be viewed favorably in Washington, a heavily trade-dependent state. (Obama has said he wants to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement.)

McCain says he believes in global warming and held an environmental round-table near North Bend last month to show off his green credentials.

During his visit, McCain sympathized with the state's frustration over the glacial pace of cleanup at the Hanford nuclear reservation near Richland. A few days later, when asked about Hanford, Obama admitted, "I don't know exactly what's going on there."

Alex Hayes, executive director of the Mainstream Republicans of Washington and a McCain delegate to the national GOP convention, said George W. Bush "never had a chance" in this state.

"If there's any Republican who can win in Washington state, it's John McCain," Hayes said.

But aside from having the Republican label under his name, McCain's stances on some key issues will work against him here.

While his war-hero status will appeal to the state's large military and veteran population, his strong support for many of Bush's Iraq war policies will not sit well in Seattle and much of Western Washington.

In McCain's "strategy brief" video, campaign manager Rick Davis said polling shows that the economy is the top issue among voters nationwide, with the Iraq war No. 2. But in the Northwest, the war is the No. 1 issue, Davis said.

McCain also likely will be attacked in Washington for his conservative views on some issues, such as abortion and his pledge to follow Bush's model for nominating conservative Supreme Court justices.

And then there's the Boeing tanker deal.

In 2001, McCain led a corruption investigation that forced the Air Force to kill a huge contract with Boeing to build new aerial-refueling tankers.

The $40 billion contract was put out to bid again and, earlier this year, it was awarded to Northrop Grumman and Boeing's European-based rival, Airbus.

The decision drew a chorus of howls from politicians and union leaders, who say thousands of jobs could be lost in Washington and other states.

Boeing is pursuing a protest that will be reviewed by the federal Government Accountability Office (GAO). Esser said the outcome of the GAO's investigation could affect McCain's standing here.

"If they say the current deal was fair competition, it's going to be hard for anyone to say John McCain was off-base for attacking corruption in government contracting," state GOP Chairman Esser said.

Ralph Thomas: rthomas@seattletimes.com