Today could be Clinton's last stand

WASHINGTON — Hillary Rodham Clinton supporters are gathering for what could be the senator's last big stand today, as the Democratic Party's rules committee meets to decide how to resolve a dispute over Florida and Michigan's delegations.

With three primaries remaining — in Puerto Rico on Sunday and Montana and South Dakota on Tuesday — today's meeting is Clinton's final major effort to overtake Sen. Barack Obama. She needs a big victory from the 30-member panel, which is expected to meet all day, and her supporters plan a rally to help press her case.

The math and the process are complex, but it boils down to this:

Obama has 1,984 delegates and Clinton 1,782, according to The Associated Press. A total of 2,026 currently is needed to win, but that number will change depending on how many of Florida and Michigan's combined 368 delegates are seated.

The committee will grapple with two issues. One is whether to seat the delegations at all. Michigan and Florida held primaries in January, defying party rules. Michigan was stripped of 128 pledged delegates and 29 superdelegates. Florida lost 185 pledged delegates and 26 supers.

Party legal advisers this week said the committee could seat no more than half the delegations — keeping out the rest would be the states' punishment.

The committee also is expected to deal with the question of who receives the delegates that are seated. In Michigan, Obama and virtually every other major contender — except Clinton — took their names off the ballot. Obama and Clinton pledged not to campaign in Florida.

Clinton won Michigan with 55 percent of the vote. "Uncommitted" got 40 percent, widely seen as a vote for Obama.

In Florida, Clinton took 50 percent, Obama had 33 percent and John Edwards, who since has endorsed Obama, got 14 percent.

Florida Democrats are pushing a plan to split the delegation's votes 50-50 between Clinton and Obama.

"We will reason together, as [President Lyndon B. Johnson] said," said Jon Ausman, a Democratic National Committee member who will argue Florida's case. Originally a Dennis Kucinich supporter, he's neutral now. "My personal goal is to come away with between 100 and 110 delegates for Florida."

Michigan's case is more complicated. Clinton argues that the full delegation should be seated, and she should receive 73 delegates, "uncommitted" should get 55 and Obama none.

Signals, however, suggest that she's unlikely to prevail.

A group of state Democratic bigwigs, led by Sen. Carl Levin, is pushing a plan to give Clinton 69 delegates and Obama 59.

Clinton and her top aides repeatedly have refused to rule out a floor fight during the August national convention if she isn't given a better deal. They also brushed aside suggestions they want to scuttle compromises to prolong the nomination battle.

"We are hopeful and expectant that the committee, in its wisdom, will do the right thing," communications director Howard Wolfson said. "We will be available to discuss what happens next if that is not the case."

Clinton's delegate point man, Harold Ickes, said his boss isn't inclined to accept any deal giving Obama any delegates from Michigan.

"They do not have the right to award those uncommitted delegates to Senator Obama," Ickes, a member of the bylaws committee, said of the DNC. "That is as fundamental a rule as exists. ... It is bedrock — it is below bedrock."

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said receiving no pledged delegates from Michigan is unacceptable to the campaign and, "I don't think is a position that people find terribly reasonable."

Plouffe has supported proposals to cut the Michigan delegation in half, and Democrats speaking on condition of anonymity about closed-door negotiations said that is what the Obama campaign is pressing the committee to do.

Not everyone on the committee is ready to recognize either of the January elections. David McDonald, an unaligned member from Washington state, said he's not sure how to split the delegates, but offered an idea of splitting them according to the ratio of delegates the candidates received in the other 48 states.

Of course, that would result in more delegates for Obama. "I'm guessing that would not be popular with the Clinton folks," McDonald said. "But at the moment I don't particularly care whether it's popular with either campaign structure. I do care about whether it makes sense and is fair to the system as a whole."

Meanwhile, busloads of Clinton backers will be on hand for a rally near the Washington hotel hosting the meeting. Among them will be Millie Herrera, a potential Clinton convention delegate and president of the Hispanic Democratic Caucus of Florida.

"When I vote, I cast one vote," she said. "It's not 50 percent or 80 percent. I don't think the votes, or the voters, should be discounted."

Obama's camp is urging its supporters to keep a low profile.

"Senator Obama has held the moral high ground on this issue," campaign adviser David Wilhelm said. "We're not going to turn this thing into a circus. We seek a fair resolution. We want the delegates seated. We're willing to compromise."

Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., an Obama supporter, said he's hoping for a "sensible and sensitive" resolution today.

"At that point, everybody will take a read," he said.

But time is running out. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, the most powerful Democrats in Congress, have stepped up pressure this week on superdelegates, saying they're expected to choose sides quickly after Tuesday's final primaries.

Compiled from McClatchy Newspapers, Newsday and The Associated Press