Obama's goal now: aura of inevitability

Sen. Barack Obama has chosen to spend Tuesday night not in Kentucky or Oregon, the two states that will be holding their primaries that day, or even at his home in Chicago. Instead, Obama's aides said Saturday that he will return for a rally in Iowa, where he won the Democratic caucuses in January.

If things continue to go as well for Obama this week as they have so far this month, with a romp in North Carolina, a strong showing in Indiana and daily growth in his support among party superdelegates, he could end up with enough pledged delegates to proclaim, without fear of contradiction, that he is now the Democratic nominee for president.

Obama's ability to declare victory for the nomination will depend in large part on his performance in the Kentucky and Oregon votes. He has all but conceded Kentucky to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, the clear favorite when the race started last year, spending little time there, but is favored in Oregon, where he is making a strong effort.

On Saturday, he appeared at a town-hall-style meeting in the southwestern Oregon town of Roseburg, talking about health care and foreign policy and taking questions on subjects including Oregon's assisted-suicide law and domestic partnerships.

He drew loud applause when he promised to have U.S. forces out of Iraq within 16 months of taking office: "I will end this war."

During a question-and-answer session, he responded to one man's inquiry about Oregon's one-of-a-kind assisted-suicide law by pledging never to "meddle" with Oregon's law the way the Bush administration did.

"I can look you in the eye and tell you I will not try to overrule the decision of the people of Oregon" who have twice endorsed assisted suicide, Obama said.

Implicitly acknowledging what could be at stake in Oregon, he also urged supporters who have voted for him in advance, a common practice there, to make sure that they got their ballots in early enough to be sure they would be counted.

There would be a certain symmetry if Oregon proved to be the state to put Obama over the top and he can indeed celebrate that victory in Iowa at a rally in which his wife, Michelle, will join him.

It was his triumph in the caucuses in Iowa, a state whose population is virtually all white, that first established him as a viable contender for the nomination. Oregon is another state whose population is also overwhelmingly white; Portland, the state's biggest urban area, is a place where he is expected to do very well, though it is sometimes called, even by its residents, "the whitest major city in the United States."

Clinton, of New York, has argued recently that one of the reasons she, rather than Obama, should be the Democratic nominee, despite his lead in delegates and the popular vote, is that she has more appeal to and will perform better among white voters who will be crucial to Democratic hopes in November.

For Obama to be in Iowa to celebrate a victory in Oregon would allow him, without having to say a word, to undermine that argument.

He has built a solid lead in Democratic National Convention delegates over Clinton and is working overtime to cast an image of inevitability to his campaign for the nomination. In recent days, he has spent more time focused on his differences with presumed Republican nominee John McCain than sparring with Clinton.

Overall, Obama has 1,907 delegates to Clinton's 1,719, according to The Associated Press, with 2,026 delegates needed to secure the nomination. On Tuesday, 103 pledged delegates will be up for grabs.

Former President Clinton, campaigning for his wife in the Columbia River town of Scappoose, told a crowd Saturday that his wife "has respected you enough to campaign in rural as well as suburban and urban communities."

He did not mention Obama but cited an estimate by Republican strategist Karl Rove that Hillary Clinton leads McCain in a composite of nationwide polls, while Obama trails McCain. The claim didn't seem to faze the Obama camp.

His traveling press secretary, Jen Psaki, said, "We have our eye on upcoming primary competitions," mentioning not only Oregon but also Montana and South Dakota, which conclude the primary season on June 3.

"But we are also beginning to lay the groundwork," she added, in swing states that will be battlegrounds in November.

This past week, for instance, Obama of Illinois visited two of the states that Psaki mentioned: Michigan, whose disputed primary has provided the Democratic Party with headaches, and Missouri. Two more are on Obama's radar for this week: Florida, whose primary results are also being debated and where Obama plans to spend three days, and Iowa, where everything started.

Obama appears so eager to return to Iowa that Friday night in Sioux Falls, S.D., he mistakenly greeted the people who had come to see him as if they were from Sioux City, which is farther south, in Iowa. As some in the crowd groaned, he quickly realized his mistake and apologized, reminding his South Dakota supporters that "I spent eight months in Iowa."

Material from The Associated Press is included in this report.