Republican jitters heighten after three straight losses

They said the first was an outlier. The second, a fluke. But after losing their third seat this year in a special election, House Republicans faced the possibility Wednesday of another rough November.

A Democratic pickup streak that started with Rep. Bill Foster's upset victory in the March election to replace former House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., crested Tuesday night, when Democrat Travis Childers won a solidly Republican open seat in Mississippi.

The GOP spent one-fifth of its available national party cash for House races on the Mississippi seat. Vice President Dick Cheney campaigned there. President Bush and presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain pitched in with automated phone calls. Their candidate lost anyway. Meanwhile, reeling House Republicans unveiled a new slogan — "Change you deserve" — only to watch Democrats gleefully note it already is used to market an antidepressant.

Several House Republicans say the losses reveal a voter disconnect with their party, rooted in dissatisfaction with Bush, which GOP candidates will have to repair district-by-district this fall. Some, including McCain and several members of the Illinois congressional delegation, appear to believe that to "rebrand" the Republican Party, they must first distance themselves from it.

"What we've got right now is a deficiency in our message and a loss of confidence by the American people that we will do what we say we are going to do," said Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Majority

As soon as the results came in Tuesday evening, Democrats already were talking publicly of a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority in the Senate.

Charlie Cook, a nonpartisan political analyst, scoffed at 60, but he said he now could see gains of as many as seven Senate seats and 15 to 25 in the House. Democrats now hold a 236 to 199 majority in the House, up from 203 seats they controlled two years ago, and Republicans face a flood of retirements in the chamber.

Retirement announcements from Senate Republicans in Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia have created prime pickup opportunities for Democrats, who will not be defending any open seats.

Ted Stevens, the longest-serving Republican senator in history, has been badly damaged by scandals besetting his family and his party in Alaska, creating an unexpected opportunity for Democrats. Sen. John Sununu, N.H., is defending a seat in a state where Democratic fortunes are on the rise, and other Republican senators — including Susan Collins of Maine, Norm Coleman of Minnesota and Gordon Smith of Oregon — are seeking re-election in states leaning Democratic in a presidential election year.

In total, 23 Republican-held Senate seats will be on the ballot this fall compared with 12 for Democrats.

Voter frustration

The parties share power in Washington. Polls show Bush and Congress faring dismally in voter-approval ratings, driven by anxieties over a slowing economy and continued dissatisfaction with the Iraq War. But politicians and analysts say it appears, at least at this point in the campaign, that voter frustration is hurting Republicans more than Democrats.

Chalk part of that up to recruiting, analysts say. The three House seats to flip to Democratic this spring all lie in districts Bush carried easily in 2004. The Democrats who won them all ran as moderate agents of change who support withdrawing troops from Iraq.

Foster opposed his own party's budget proposal Wednesday and said it "unfairly places a hefty tax burden on the backs of hard-working middle-class families." Childers and Don Cazayoux, the Democrat who won a formerly GOP seat in Louisiana this month, both favor gun rights and oppose legalized abortion — making them "Republicans in all but title," Cole said.

Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report, said Republicans need to run better candidates to better fit their districts. "Democrats have learned how to win in conservative districts by running conservative candidates," he said.

Democrats suggest something larger as well: a link in voters' minds between GOP candidates, economic struggle and an unpopular war.

House Republicans say they expect a chilly electoral climate this fall. To weather it, several touted their abilities to work across — or transcend — party lines. McCain, in events across the Pacific Northwest this week, took a similar approach to the presidential race, emphasizing his break from the Bush administration on global warming.

"The critical challenge before both parties is to articulate a 21st-century agenda," said Rep. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., who faces a high-profile challenge from Democrat Dan Seals in a district that voted for Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., in the 2004 election.

After Tuesday's GOP loss, Kirk said several Republican colleagues began inquiring about his so-called "suburban agenda," a bipartisan package of health care, environmental, education and other measures. Other Republicans take heart in the belief that voters still share their ideals, including low taxes, strong defense and limited government.

"Our party could have gotten the message out better," said Rep. Judy Biggert, R-Ill., "but all of us go home and get the message out. ... What we have to do is tell people our vision for the future and how we're going to solve our problems."

Several Republicans stressed that November elections don't always follow the results of special elections, which analysts say tend to draw far fewer voters and typically reflect the enthusiasm of the most committed partisans on either side.

Turnout will be higher — and the playing field more level — come November, said David Wasserman, House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

"The good news for Republicans," he said, "is that this is rock bottom."

Information from The Washington Post is included in this report.