Oregon the end of the trail for Clinton?

PORTLAND — As Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton finished a Friday talk about her quest for universal health-care coverage, her staff gently nudged the candidate. It was time to leave the pink-walled patio of Doernbecher Children's Hospital and move on to the round of interviews with local television stations.

Clinton lingered in the chilly air, seeming to draw strength from the hospital staff, patient families and campaign workers around her.

"Don't give up," said Sue Klassy, a retired railroad worker who had spent the past two months phoning voters on behalf of Clinton.

"I won't," Clinton said as she squeezed Klassy's hand.

Still, 16 months after Clinton declared her candidacy, Oregon's May 20 primary looms as the place where her hopes of capturing the Democratic nomination might end.

Sen. Barack Obama is likely to win enough pledged state delegates in Oregon and Kentucky, no matter who wins those primaries, to assure himself of an overall majority.

Clinton is a heavy favorite in Kentucky, but Obama is favored to win the majority of Oregon's 52 pledged delegates.

"Oregon is playing a pivotal role in the campaign," said Nick Shapiro, an Oregon campaign spokesman for Obama. "It is likely in Oregon we are going to clinch the pledged-delegates lead."

The Clinton campaign, however, hopes she can stage an upset that might give pause to uncommitted superdelegates, the elected officials and party leaders who will cast the final, deciding votes in the nomination battle. If not, the already mounting pressure to exit the race will increase exponentially.

Both candidates were in Oregon on Friday to campaign amid a mail-in primary that is already under way. About 10 percent of the expected ballots have been returned.

Clinton drew strength from blue-collar workers to win Ohio, Pennsylvania and Indiana. She and her husband, former President Clinton, who has been in Oregon twice in recent months, have campaigned in many smaller towns.

But Oregon's timber and manufacturing industries have been declining in recent years, and it will be difficult to pick up enough votes among blue-collar workers to carry Clinton to victory, analysts say.

"The polling has been pretty consistent with Obama ahead. Not by a huge number, but 4 to 10 percent," said Jim Moore, a political scientist at Pacific University in Western Oregon.

Clinton arrived in Oregon on Thursday evening for a town-hall meeting in Southern Oregon, where she was introduced by Gov. Ted Kulongoski, a supporter.

On Friday, at Doernbecher's hospital, she met several families struggling to deal with sick children and mounting health bills. She used the appearance to hammer home the signature issue of her campaign — support for universal health care.

"I want to fix our health-care system," Clinton said. "That is why I am running for president, and this is one of the reasons that I hope the people of Oregon will support me."

She did not schedule any larger events in Portland, where Obama is expected to do well.

"Portland is not Pittsburgh or Philadelphia," said Tim Hibbitts, an Oregon pollster. "In many ways, it is similar to Seattle. It is a center of the creative classes. And I expect Portland to be a real stronghold for Obama ... "

Obama's stop focused on efforts to court voters outside the city. He met with a small group of high-tech workers west of Portland, then held a town-hall meeting in the Willamette Valley town of Albany, which has a major mill.

Obama was flanked on stage by his brother-in-law, Craig Robinson, the newly appointed basketball coach at Oregon State University in Corvallis, and Rep. Peter DeFazio, a superdelegate who announced his support for Obama on Thursday.

Obama emphasized themes that resonate among green voters in Oregon, saying that one of the gravest consequences of Clinton's proposal for a summer holiday from the federal gas tax would have been to postpone making changes in the country's reliance on oil and fossil fuels.

Investing in solar and wind energy, he said, could result in "millions of green-collar jobs" across Oregon and elsewhere.

This is a rare moment in the spotlight for Oregon's primary.

The state, which approved a presidential primary in 1910, was at the forefront of a reform movement that sought to give voters — rather than party bosses — a say in picking delegates sent to nominating conventions. But its importance in the presidential sweepstakes has faded as the state stuck to a May polling date while others moved to earlier elections.

The last time Oregon was in the presidential primary limelight was in 1968, when Sen. Robert Kennedy challenged Sen. Eugene McCarthy for the Democratic nomination.

"It was a barnburner," Moore said. "I lived in Medford, and my mother pulled me out of school to see Kennedy. The [voter] turnout was just stunning."

Turnout is expected to be high this year as well. Excitement over the Democratic presidential race has helped spur the registration of 115,000 new voters.

"There has been a huge surge in Democratic registrations, and Republicans have actually dropped from where they were," said Scott Moore, a spokesman for the Oregon Secretary of State's office.

But it is uncertain how many of these voters will remain in the party. Some who may have switched affiliations are expected to switch back before the general election.

Hal Bernton: 206-464-2581 or hbernton@seattletimes.com

The Associated Press and Los Angeles Times contributed to this report.