GOP's House odds fade further

WASHINGTON — Rep. Thomas Reynolds, R-N.Y., said Thursday he will not seek another term in office, becoming the latest member of the former GOP leadership team to step down in the past two years.

Reynolds is the fifth departing member of the Republican leadership team that ran the House with an iron fist for 12 years until Democrats took control in the 2006 election. His decision was another blow to Republican chances against Democrats, who appear likely to widen their majority with more than two dozen GOP seats coming open this year.

Twenty-nine House Republicans have said in the past year they will not run for re-election, have decided to seek another office or have simply quit midterm.

Only seven seats are being given up by the Democrats, who see the opportunity to fatten their majority in the House — and the Senate.

The departures pushed an almost completely new set of members into GOP leadership.

Rep. Eric Cantor, R-Va., 44, the chief deputy whip, said Republicans need to reclaim the "message of renewal and reform" and tie themselves to their presumptive presidential nominee, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., whose political brand has been to "challenge the status quo."

Republican retirements and money woes have created the chance for Democrats to go beyond the "modest to double-digit gains" currently forecast, said Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter.

Indeed, some Democrats are talking about making a serious run for up to 50 House seats now held by Republicans.

Less-partisan analysts suggested a Democratic gain of 10 to 20 seats in the general election, when all House seats are on the line. The current House breakdown: Democrats 233 seats, Republicans 198, four vacant.

The situation is also troublesome for the GOP in the Senate, where Democrats are confident of picking up departing Republican John Warner's seat in Virginia and are campaigning hard for GOP seats being vacated in Colorado and New Mexico. Republicans have failed to recruit top-tier candidates to challenge Democratic senators in GOP-leaning Montana, South Dakota and Arkansas.

The Democrats' current Senate margin effectively is 51-49, including two independents who usually align themselves with the Democratic Party.

From 2003 through 2006, Reynolds chaired the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), making him the House Republicans' top political strategist. He was a close ally of former Rep. Dennis Hastert, of Illinois, during Hastert's eight-year reign as House speaker.

Many believe he hoped to eventually succeed Hastert as speaker. He announced his decision to not seek a sixth term fewer than two weeks after Democrat Bill Foster won a special election for Hastert's seat. Hastert retired in November.

Like many departing Republicans, Reynolds, 57, said he wants to spend time with his family.

He has come under fire over his tenure as NRCC chairman in recent weeks. The committee last week accused its former treasurer, Christopher Ward, of diverting hundreds of thousands of dollars from NRCC coffers to his personal accounts in an alleged fraud scheme the committee said dates back to at least 2004.

Reynolds promoted Ward to treasurer in 2003. While Reynolds and the NRCC appear to have been victimized, lawmakers have questioned his stewardship of the committee. The FBI is investigating.

Campaign money, usually a Republican strong suit, also is flowing to the Democrats this season. In the most recent reports, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had $34 million on hand, compared with $4 million for the NRCC, its GOP counterpart.

In the Senate, former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, a Democrat, is the front-runner in the race for that state's open seat. Two Democratic House members named Udall — Mark in Colorado, Tom in New Mexico — are running well-financed campaigns for seats being vacated by Republicans Wayne Allard in Colorado and Pete Domenici in New Mexico.

Democrats also are waging strong Senate campaigns to oust Republican incumbents in New Hampshire, Minnesota, Alaska, Oregon and Maine. Their biggest worry is Democrat Mary Landrieu of Louisiana. She struggled to win her first two Senate races and is scrambling again this year.

Democrats' highest hopes for knocking off a Senate Republican incumbent focus on John Sununu in New Hampshire. He is locked in a rematch with former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, who lost to him by 4 percentage points in 2002.