County budget outlook dims

King County services — potentially ranging from public health to court operations — could face deep cuts next year in the face of rising costs and declining revenue growth, county officials said Wednesday.

After telling the Metropolitan King County Council that spending must be trimmed by about $45 million to avoid a 2009 budget deficit, Budget Director Bob Cowan said the problem might be worse than that.

Asked by council Chair Julia Patterson about his confidence in the $45 million estimate, Cowan said it was developed during a quarterly budget review and that economic conditions, including inflation, have worsened since then. The 2009 shortfall in the general fund could be anywhere between $40 million and $70 million, he said.

"As we get closer and closer to the time of actually preparing the budget, we'll have a better handle on it," Cowan said.

He projected a cumulative shortfall of $118 million between 2009 and 2012.

County Executive Ron Sims has asked department directors to look for ways to cut their spending, but he hasn't decided which departments might be hit hardest. Overall cuts in the general fund could be 7 to 10 percent, Cowan said.

County Council staff analyst Mark Melroy said 2007 and 2008 revenues are running $14 million below budget because of lower interest earnings, reduced tax collections and a $4 million loss the county is taking on mortgage-backed investments that went sour.

The general fund, $662 million in 2008, is the part of King County's $4.9 billion budget that uses local taxes to pay for elections, sheriff's deputies, courts, jails, prosecutors and public defenders, public health, human services, animal control, licensing, council, executive and assessor.

Seventy-one percent of the budget is spent on criminal justice.

The council's capital budget chair, Larry Phillips, said the county faces "a burgeoning public-safety crisis" because of stagnating revenues and inflation fueled by higher prices for oil and employee health care.

Phillips urged Sims to consult closely with the council as he begins to prepare his budget, which will be officially sent to the council in October.

Cowan said the county might have to cut its general-fund spending on public health, which has risen from $16 million in 2004 to $31 million in 2008, primarily to replace dwindling state funding.

Some council members began staking out turf Wednesday on spending priorities. Democrats Patterson and Bob Ferguson said public-health expenditures provide critical services, while Republican Kathy Lambert said public safety should be the top spending priority.

Keith Ervin: 206-464-2105 or kervin@seattletimes.com