ON DEADLINE: Obama Has Much Yet to Prove

Amid the poetry and promise of Barack Obama's election-night address came this hard truth: "There will be setbacks," he said, "and we will make mistakes."

Whether intentional or not, the Illinois senator set the tone for the grueling next phase of his presidential campaign. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton will look to set him back. And she will seize on every mistake.

The rivals fought to a draw on Super Tuesday, splitting the delegates almost evenly while each emerged with bragging rights. Obama won the most states. Clinton seized delegate-rich California and New York.

The calendar now favors Obama, whose strength among blacks and upscale, educated voters gives him the edge in states holding contests this month.

He also has a cash advantage after raising more than twice as much as Clinton in January.

So why worry? Despite Obama's successes so far, it's hard to argue with Bill Clinton that it's a "roll of the dice" to vote for a freshman senator less than four years removed from the Illinois legislature. Obama still has much to prove. The potential for setbacks and mistakes is high.

REZKO: Obama's relationship with indicted businessman Antoin "Tony" Rezko threatens his image as an antidote to the poisons of Washington. Rezko, accused of scheming to pressure companies seeking state business for kickbacks and campaign contributions, poured thousands of dollars into the campaigns of Obama and others. Rezko also helped Obama increase the size of his yard in a transaction that the Illinois senator now calls a "boneheaded" mistake.

RECORD: Scrutiny of Obama's record will increase with each step he takes toward the Democratic nomination. The New York Times recently poked holes in Obama's explanation of his role in legislation that ultimately benefited a nuclear energy company whose executives and employees have donated more than $200,000 to his campaigns.

RACE: Obama makes history with every victory as the first black candidate with a serious shot at the White House. But the question persists: Can a black man win it all? Obama drew support from four in 10 whites across 16 states _ more than he had captured in earlier primary states. He and Clinton tied among white men while Clinton led among white women. Clinton won six in 10 Hispanic voters, a crucial group that helped her win in California and Arizona.

TEMPERAMENT: Unlike his rival, Obama has never experienced a tough campaign _ and it shows at times. Remember when he said in New Hampshire that Clinton was "likable enough"? It grated on female voters. He needs to avoid looking rude, crabby or cocky. His friends would tell you that's not always easy for him.

EXPERIENCE: The unusually self-aware Obama acknowledged last summer that it was "a stretch" for voters to consider him for the presidency. He needs to avoid a miscue that underscores his inexperience. About one-fifth of the Democratic voters Tuesday said they favored a candidate with seasoning, and Clinton won nearly all their votes.

The good news for Obama: A majority of Democratic voters want change, and 70 percent of those voters backed the Illinois senator.

"Change will not come if we wait for some other person or if we wait for some other time," Obama told supporters Tuesday night. "We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek."

That is a killer line, the kind the sends chills down voters' spines. But it was another line, much earlier in the address, that reflected a more pragmatic side of Obama. The side that wonders and worries about what the his-and-her Clinton candidacy has in store for him.

Indeed, there will setbacks and mistakes, Obama told the adoring crowd, and "that is why we need all the help we can get."

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EDITOR'S NOTE: Ron Fournier has covered politics for The Associated Press for nearly 20 years. On Deadline is an occasional column.