Tuesday vote big test for Latino clout with Democrats

LOS ANGELES — At the Hillary Rodham Clinton rally in East L.A. Saturday, before the all-female mariachi band performed and the candidate delivered her speech, Dolores Huerta reminded the huge crowd of the big event coming up.

"Tuesday is Super Tuesday. You know what else it is?" asked the 77-year-old co-founder of the United Farm Workers. "It's Super Latino Tuesday!"

There is no question about that in California — or in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, New York and New Mexico.

In each of those states, all of which have Democratic primaries or caucuses Tuesday, the Latino vote is a significant factor, expected to account for 14 percent of the turnout in California. And Latinos' preference for Clinton over Barack Obama gives her a real advantage.

Politicians and analysts say the reason is obvious. Latinos know and like the Clintons — they don't know much about Obama — and appreciate what their lives were like when Bill Clinton was president.

"It's primarily because of the Clintons' track record," said Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, one of many prominent Latino public officials who has endorsed Hillary Clinton. "They remember the jobs that were created, the good economy and an administration focused on reducing the immigration backlog."

Conchita Saenz, 76, a resident of East Los Angeles, said she sees something special in the senator from New York.

"She relates to us — I don't know how, but she does," Saenz explained as she waited for the rally to begin. "We just really love her, even those in our community who can't vote. She's on our side and she showed it with how she fought for health care as first lady."

The Clinton numbers are dramatic. In the Nevada caucuses, she won the Latino voter, 64 percent to 26 percent for Obama. In the Florida primary, the margin was 61-28. In California polls, she has similar leads.

Obama has no hope of carrying the Latino vote Tuesday, except in his home state of Illinois. He is simply trying to cut down Clinton's margin of victory among those voters, and his campaign aides say they are confident he will.

Since Nevada, they say, they have done a number of things to produce a less-lopsided result.

They have launched a sophisticated, bilingual, grass-roots operation in the states with large Latino populations. They have attracted endorsements from key Latino elected officials, particularly in California and Colorado. They have been airing Spanish television and radio commercials in Los Angeles, Phoenix and Tucson.

They also are making heavy use of the Kennedy connection.

At an Obama rally a few days ago, Xavier Becerra, a congressman from Los Angeles, summoned the memory of Robert Kennedy, assassinated here in 1968 and much loved by Latinos, saying, "It's been 40 years since we've had a chance to hope this way."

The next day, Sen. Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts, who has endorsed Obama, stumped for the Illinois senator in East Los Angeles, making a painful but appreciated effort to speak Spanish.

Sunday, Caroline Kennedy came here as well.

Said Eduardo Munoz, 43, who teaches at a local community college and supports Obama: "My parents love the Kennedys; the Kennedys have deeper roots in the Latino community than the Clintons. In fact, my father, who's in his 70s, switched over from Clinton to Obama after the endorsement."

One factor that may work against Obama with Latino voters is his racial background.

Last month, Sergio Bendixen, a pollster working for Clinton, was quoted as saying it was a historical fact that Latinos often have been reluctant to vote for blacks.

Some politicians, including Villaraigosa, dispute the conclusion. Even so, Obama felt compelled to raise the subject at an appearance here, pointing out that he had received strong support from Latinos in Illinois.

"Over the past few weeks, we've heard some cynical talk ... about the so-called 'black-brown divide,' " he said. "And whenever I hear this, I take it seriously."

During that same speech, Obama was making a point about his plan for immigration reform when it occurred to him that he might have another handicap in his attempt to woo Latino voters.

"You need to learn English," he said, referring to what he would tell illegal immigrants seeking permanent residence in this country. "Of course, I need to learn Spanish."

Latinos are not just important in the primaries; they are hugely important in the general election.

They number 44 million, 15 percent of the population, according to the latest Census Bureau estimates, making them the nation's largest minority group. (The 37 million blacks constitute 12 percent of the population.) Latinos' numbers also are growing faster than the nation as a whole. In Washington state, the Latino population of 581,357 represented 9.1 percent of the state population in 2006, according to census population estimates. That's up from 7.5 percent reported in the 2000 census.

To prevail in November, Democrats will need to win the Latino vote by a substantial margin.

There are issues of special interest to Latinos, including immigration, health care and education. To a large extent, though, Democrats from the community have the same attitudes toward the two candidates as do other Democrats.

There is, for instance, a generational divide.

"A lot of young Latinos are going to vote for Obama, older ones for Clinton," said Sandy Escobedo, 26, who works for a nonprofit organization and backs Obama.

"Our vote is not monolithic or homogeneous, but his being from Chicago doesn't help. If he was from the West, the community here would be more familiar with him."