Outcome just got more unpredictable

WASHINGTON — Forget those notions of the '08 primary season being over in a hurry.

The Iowa caucus victories by Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee over early favorites pointed to an unpredictable election campaign likely to be far from settled by the time 24 states conduct their nominating contests Feb. 5.

For Democrats, the question in New Hampshire and beyond is whether they will think twice about nominating Hillary Rodham Clinton now that the invincibility of the New York senator has been shattered.

The Democrats' promising message out of Iowa is Obama's capacity to bring young voters and independents into the party's fold, regardless of whether the Illinois senator captures the nomination.

For Republicans, Iowa's results foretell a wide-open race with a looming make-or-break stand Tuesday in New Hampshire by Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who was an early favorite in Iowa and who staked his hopes on early-primary successes.

The convincing victory of Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, served as a shock to the GOP establishment, given his unorthodox, populist views. Yet Republicans can find hope in seeing Huckabee reawaken evangelical Protestants, a key component of GOP electoral success in recent elections.

Iowa is known for breaking candidates as well as making them. Sens. Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Joseph Biden of Delaware announced Thursday night that they were dropping out of the Democratic contest. And former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson's weak showing added fuel to rumors that he soon will exit the GOP competition.

But a big-name casualty could turn out to be Democrat John Edwards, who counted on an Iowa victory. Unlike Romney, Edwards, the former North Carolina senator and 2004 vice-presidential nominee, lacks the financial wherewithal to compete in the tightly compressed primaries and caucuses in the next month.

History shows that second place in Iowa rarely punches a ticket to success. For instance, in 1988, the late Paul Simon of Illinois lost by 3.5 percent to fellow Democrat Dick Gephardt but saw his campaign unravel soon afterward.

For Obama and Huckabee, the question is how much of a "bounce" they will enjoy with the New Hampshire primary only four days away — and Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida following soon after. In the past, New Hampshire voted eight days after Iowa, giving success in Iowa more time to take root and failure more time to subside.

Obama's success, in a state where the population is only 2.1 percent black, continued a remarkable political rise from his status as an Illinois state senator only three years ago.

Starting at a debate in New Hampshire on Saturday evening, Obama and his rivals will be forced to talk again about substantive issues after presenting little more than contrasting themes in the windup to the Iowa contest. For Obama, that message was change; Clinton stressed her leadership capacity; and Edwards pushed his hard-edged populism.

Beginning today in New Hampshire, the Democrats likely will be pressed anew on the Iraq war, the economy and health care — at the top of the list of Democratic concerns.

Until now, Clinton has enjoyed a lead in New Hampshire, although it has been trimmed by Obama in recent weeks. Despite her loss in Iowa, she can build on positive perceptions. Polls showed that she has an overwhelming advantage over Obama and Edwards when New Hampshire Democrats were asked who could better handle health care and the economy.

But after seeing 70 percent of Iowans vote against her, Clinton may need to move swiftly to re-establish a rationale for her candidacy.

"If Hillary doesn't stop Obama in New Hampshire, Obama is going to be the Democratic nominee," said Bob Shrum, a Democratic consultant who was John Kerry's senior strategist in 2004.

The GOP race in Iowa opened fissures in the party beyond the predicted scrap for the mantle of most popular conservative. Chiefly, the issue of illegal immigration, which ranks near the top of concerns among GOP voters in New Hampshire and states beyond, almost certainly will force Republican aspirants into a mode of out-toughing one another in promising to clamp down on illegal workers.

In Iowa, Republicans received the disquieting message that their candidates this cycle may lack appeal: Far more Democrats than Republicans turned out in the caucuses even though the parties were roughly even in registration.

For Huckabee, the test now will be appealing to a New Hampshire electorate that has far fewer evangelical Protestants than Iowa and doing so with fewer resources than his rivals. But he can take comfort in knowing that South Carolina, a bastion of evangelicals, holds its GOP primary Jan. 19.

Iowa's GOP is made up disproportionately of Christian conservatives; six in every 10 Republicans who turned out Thursday night identified themselves as evangelicals. The Rev. Pat Robertson shocked the Republican establishment in 1988 by placing ahead of George H.W. Bush in Iowa but didn't come close to winning the nomination.

Nonetheless, Romney's decline should be deeply troubling to supporters. He had spent six times more than Huckabee on TV ads as of last week and visited Iowa far more than any rival. The loss throws into question his early-state strategy as well as his capacity to reach those who question his jarring shifts in positions and his Mormon faith.

In New Hampshire, Huckabee and Romney now must contend with resurgent Sen. John McCain, who has more than doubled his support in polls since being all but counted out of the GOP contest in November. McCain now leads Romney in the former Massachusetts governor's backyard.

Giuliani allowed an early burst of support in Iowa to dwindle in favor of national strategy that focuses on Florida on Jan. 29 and on larger Feb. 5 states. It is a risky path for Giuliani, once the prohibitive favorite to win the nomination, a tactic that Iowa's GOP Sen. Charles Grassley labeled a "big mistake."

New Hampshire Republicans have another force to contend with: U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, who quietly raised more than $20 million in the past three months, more than any other GOP candidate.

Fueled by heavy advertising, Paul's libertarian views could appeal widely in a state with the motto "Live Free or Die."

Shrum's comment was reported by The New York Times.